{"id":79880,"date":"2026-05-07T08:35:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T13:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/?post_type=market-news&#038;p=79880"},"modified":"2026-05-07T11:08:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T16:08:15","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-carriers-routing-around-the-gulf-not-back-through-it","status":"publish","type":"market-news","link":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/de\/supply-chain-insights\/strait-of-hormuz-carriers-routing-around-the-gulf-not-back-through-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Strait of Hormuz: Carriers routing around the Gulf, not back through it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary\"><em>Summary:<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Diversion activity remains well above pre\u2011closure norms nearly nine weeks into the conflict, but weekly volumes are now falling sharply, dropping 55% in the final week of the period as carriers pause bookings rather than commit to longer reroutes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite easing diversion counts, ports absorbing rerouted cargo continue to face significant congestion. Import dwell remains elevated across India and major Asian hubs, with Nhava Sheva (Mumbai) exceeding 19 days, a 155% increase since early March.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As diversions dwindle, trade patterns are shifting. The steepest volume declines are concentrated on Gulf\u2011adjacent lanes involving the UAE and Saudi Arabia with volume declines of over 58% across all lanes. Growth is emerging on alternative corridors, particularly New Zealand to US (+142%) and multiple Europe\u2011linked lanes, indicating sustained network rebalancing rather than a return to prior routing patterns.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Notably, China accounts for three of the five lanes showing the steepest volume declines despite Iranian passage rights, suggesting carriers are routing on risk perception rather than diplomatic arrangements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-overview\"><strong>Overview<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Diversions away from Gulf ports remain elevated nearly nine weeks into the conflict, but the pace of new diversion activity is slowing. What began as a sharp, reactive response to the Strait\u2019s closure has shifted into a more stable pattern of avoidance, with weekly diversion volumes declining from their peaks but still well above pre\u2011closure norms. The data suggests this moderation reflects fewer shipments entering the region rather than a return to normal operating conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While diversion counts taper, downstream impacts continue to accumulate. Ports absorbing rerouted volume remain under strain, with elevated dwell times persisting even as inflows ease. At the same time, trade lane volumes have begun to rebalance, with declines concentrated near the Gulf and growth emerging along alternative corridors, particularly involving Europe and select Pacific routes. Together, these trends point to a sustained reconfiguration of carrier networks rather than a short\u2011lived disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-diversions-slow-while-tensions-continue-nbsp\"><strong>Diversions slow while tensions continue&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As conflict in the area continues, diversions away from Gulf ports remain at sustained levels, even 9 weeks into the conflict, but these diversions are starting to slow down. The chart below outlines the number of diversions project44 has observed weekly in its platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"964\" height=\"774\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79868\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4.png 964w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-300x241.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-768x617.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the Strait closed, weekly diversions were below the 2,000 threshold, which is considered normal operational noise. Since the closure, there are 4 distinct phases of diversions that are observed in the chart above based on specific events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Phase one<\/strong>, spanning March 2 through March 22, reflects the initial surge following the disruption. Volumes eased modestly in the weeks of March 9 and March 16, down 8% and 10%, as the initial shock was absorbed and carriers stabilized provisional alternative routings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Phase two<\/strong> centers on the week beginning March 23, when diversions rose 28% to 9,572. This was the highest diversion volume observed in the dataset and correlates to a specific event: Iran\u2019s partial reopening to five friendly nations on March 26. From that point forward, cargo moved under two distinct regimes. Non\u2011eligible cargo remained barred from Hormuz and was forced to divert, while eligible\u2011flag cargo resumed transit. This split concentrated rerouting pressure on the remaining flows and pushed diversion volumes higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Phase three<\/strong> covers the ceasefire period from March 30 through April 12. The first week held close to the prior peak at 9,317 shipments, a decline of 3%. The following week saw a sharp contraction to 5,633 shipments, a 40% week\u2011over\u2011week decline and the steepest fall recorded until early May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Phase four<\/strong> runs from mid\u2011April through May 4 and captures the dual\u2011blockade period. The addition of a US naval blockade alongside Iran\u2019s re\u2011closure established a baseline of roughly 5,000 to 6,600 diversions per week through late April. This floor held until the final week of the period, April 27 through May 4, when volumes fell to 2,960, a 55% decline. The Project Freedom announcement on May 3 appears to have prompted carriers to pause bookings rather than commit to another Cape routing, a hesitation that is clearly visible in the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-diversions-dwindle-but-impacts-linger\"><strong>Diversions dwindle, but impacts linger<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While the diversions begin to taper off, the operational impacts to ports that have been receiving these diversions continue to struggle to work through the influx of volume. The below chart shows import dwell at ports absorbing diversions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"822\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79869\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-5.png 1008w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-5-300x245.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-5-768x626.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Indian port Nhava Sheva (Mumbai) has seen the highest increase to import dwell, which is currently sitting above 19 days (a 155% increase since the week of March 2<sup>nd<\/sup>). Mundra, Singapore, and Shanghai also continue to see increased delays processing import, though not to the same level observed in Mumbai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mumbai also continues to struggle to work through their influx of transshipment volumes. The chart below outlines the port dwell time for transshipment containers in Mumbai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"788\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79870\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-6.png 1008w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-6-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-6-768x600.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The week of April 27<sup>th<\/sup> showed great improvement compared to the 30 day dwell times observed throughout the week of April 20<sup>th<\/sup>, but transshipment containers are still waiting on average for 15 days at the port, up considerably since the week of March 2<sup>nd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to note that while the tensions in the Gulf created the influx of volume, Gulf shipments are not the only ones impacted by increases in port dwell. These dwell times can have ripple effects across countless seemingly non-related industries and shipments.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gulf-ports-two-very-different-stories\"><strong>Gulf ports: two very different stories<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The congestion story in India and Asia is well documented. Less visible, but equally consequential, is what has been happening inside the Gulf itself. Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi, the two largest UAE container ports, tell strikingly different stories across the nine-week period, and the divergence has direct implications for any cargo owner with UAE exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jebel Ali: import dwell has risen every single week without exception.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jebel Ali import dwell stood at 16.3 days when the Strait closed on March 2. By the week of April 27 it had reached 64.6 days, a 297% increase across nine consecutive weeks of unbroken growth. Cargo is arriving at the UAE\u2019s largest port but has no viable exit through the Strait. The result is a nine-week accumulation with no clearing mechanism. Crucially, this backlog does not resolve the moment Hormuz reopens: new inbound flows will compete directly with the existing queue, and the clearing process will take weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Export dwell at Jebel Ali has also been rising, reaching 59.1 days in Week 9, though more slowly than import. The interpretation is straightforward: outbound vessels are also unable to depart via the Strait, creating a simultaneous import backlog and export queue at the same port.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"848\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79902\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-8.png 1008w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-8-300x252.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-8-768x646.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Abu Dhabi: import dwell peaked in Week 5 and has been falling since.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Abu Dhabi tells a different story. Import dwell rose steadily from 32.6 days in Week 1 to a peak of 46.6 days in Week 5, then reversed: by Week 9 it had fallen back to 30.3 days, below where it started. Abu Dhabi\u2019s Mina Khalifa and Khalifa Port serve predominantly industrial and project cargo with dedicated terminals and more flexible scheduling, which allowed cargo owners to find alternative routing or exit points as the crisis extended. Jebel Ali\u2019s consumer and retail cargo mix has no equivalent flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Abu Dhabi export dwell adds a further nuance. It rose more slowly than import through the first five weeks, but has climbed sharply in Week 9 to 47.4 days, its highest reading in the dataset. Goods on the import side can arrive and be cleared; vessels on the export side still cannot depart through the Strait. The import-clearing, export-blocked split is the signature of a port functioning as a holding area for goods waiting for conditions to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79903\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-9.png 1008w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-9-300x253.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-9-768x648.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-this-tension-impacts-overall-trade-routes\"><strong>How this tension impacts overall trade routes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While it is true that diversions are dwindling, this does not mean that operations are shifting back to \u201cnormal\u201d. What this more likely means is that shipments are not being diverted from the Gulf ports because carriers are avoiding routing to the area. The chart below outlines the largest shifts in volumes observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"784\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79871\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-7.png 1008w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-7-300x233.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-7-768x597.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The clear trend in declining volume is proximity to the Gulf. All five of the top lanes involve either the UAE or Saudi Arabia, two countries directly inhibited by the Strait\u2019s closure. It is unsurprising that this is forcing volumes down, but what is notable is that China makes up one of the partners in 3 of the top 5 lanes despite being explicitly allowed passage by the Iranian government. This suggests carriers are routing on risk perception rather than diplomatic arrangements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New Zealand to the US is the lane that has seen the largest increase in volume, but countries that are part of the EU (Belgium, Portugal, and Italy) make up three of the top five increases in lanes showing that Europe is stepping in to help stop gaps in shipping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary: Overview Diversions away from Gulf ports remain elevated nearly nine weeks into the conflict, but the pace of new diversion activity is slowing. What began as a sharp, reactive&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":77,"featured_media":79882,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"69606,2300,57181,79499,46730,2360","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"market-news-category":[305],"market-news-tag":[],"class_list":["post-79880","market-news","type-market-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market-news-category-ozean"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strait of Hormuz: Carriers routing around the 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