{"id":79213,"date":"2026-04-20T17:14:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T22:14:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/?post_type=market-news&#038;p=79213"},"modified":"2026-04-20T17:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T22:14:14","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-cargo-is-collapsing-back-into-the-gulf","status":"publish","type":"market-news","link":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/ja\/supply-chain-insights\/strait-of-hormuz-cargo-is-collapsing-back-into-the-gulf\/","title":{"rendered":"Strait of Hormuz:\u00a0Cargo Is Collapsing Back\u00a0Into\u00a0the Gulf\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Summary\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em><strong>UAE ports are saturated<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 58% of diversions are staying inside the Gulf (up from 43% in Week 1), with cargo bouncing between Jebel Ali, Fujairah, and\u00a0Khawr\u00a0Fakkan rather than reaching end markets.\u00a0<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>Dwell times are at crisis levels<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Abu Dhabi at\u00a048.9 days, Jebel Ali at 46.9 days (up from 13.5 in Week 1). Cargo is waiting over six weeks to clear.\u00a0<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>Relief valves are closing<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 India&#8217;s share of diverted cargo halved in one week (15% \u2192 8%); Kuwait has formed its own internal loop\u00a0<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-overview-nbsp\">Overview&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Seven weeks into the Strait of Hormuz closure, the diversion data is telling a story that is different from what a falling headline number suggests. Total diversions declined again in Week 7, reaching 5,317 \u2014 the lowest weekly figure of the disruption. But the composition of those diversions has fundamentally changed.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the early weeks of the disruption, cargo originally destined for UAE ports was being rerouted to India, Sri Lanka, and Oman \u2014 real geographic redistribution across the Indian Ocean. In Week 7, 58% of all diversions ended inside the UAE itself, up from 43% in Week 1. The network is not redistributing cargo outward. It is compressing it into a&nbsp;smaller and smaller&nbsp;area.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weekly-diversion-totals\">Weekly diversion totals\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"775\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-28.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-28.png 936w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-28-300x248.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-28-768x636.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"h-weekly-diversion-totals\">\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Week 7 figure of 5,317 is the lowest of the disruption. Pre-disruption weekly baselines ran between 1,075 and 1,581, so even at this low point, diversions are running&nbsp;roughly 3.5&nbsp;times&nbsp;normal. But the more important signal is the composition shift tracked below.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-where-diverted-cargo-is-actually-going\">Where diverted cargo is actually going\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"888\" height=\"936\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-26.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-26.png 888w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-26-285x300.png 285w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-26-768x810.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 888px) 100vw, 888px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The UAE figure requires emphasis. In Week 1, when the disruption began and carriers scrambled to reroute cargo across the Indian Ocean, 43% of diversions still ended inside the UAE. After seven weeks of&nbsp;supposed adaptation, that share has risen to 58%. The network has not built more capacity elsewhere \u2014 it has run out of capacity elsewhere.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The India decline is equally important. India was absorbing 12\u201315% of diverted cargo in Weeks 5 and 6. In Week 7, that share dropped to 8%, even as the total number of diversions also fell.&nbsp;The TSP1 (transshipment)&nbsp;dwell&nbsp;at Nhava Sheva stands at&nbsp;14.0 days, Mundra at&nbsp;13.6 days, and Pipavav at&nbsp;24.6 days. These ports are congested at the transshipment layer, which is precisely where diverted Gulf cargo would arrive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dwell-time-trends-weeks-1-7-nbsp\">Dwell Time Trends: Weeks 1\u20137&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-import-dwell-across-key-ports-nbsp\">Import dwell across key ports:&nbsp;<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"838\" height=\"936\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-25.png 838w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-25-269x300.png 269w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-25-768x858.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 838px) 100vw, 838px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Jebel Ali has posted a new high every single week of the disruption without exception \u2014 from&nbsp;13.5 days&nbsp;in Week 1 to&nbsp;46.9 days&nbsp;in Week 7. That is a 3.5\u00d7 increase over seven weeks with no sign of inflection. At the current rate of increase (roughly 5\u20137 days per week), Jebel Ali import dwell would exceed&nbsp;60 days&nbsp;by the end of May.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-transshipment-nbsp-dwell-nbsp-across-key-ports-nbsp\">Transshipment&nbsp;dwell&nbsp;across key ports:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"838\" height=\"936\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-27.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-79200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-27.png 838w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-27-269x300.png 269w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-27-768x858.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 838px) 100vw, 838px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Pipavav&#8217;s TSP1 dwell peaked at&nbsp;36.7 days&nbsp;in Week 5 and has since fallen to&nbsp;24.6 days&nbsp;\u2014 a genuine improvement. Colombo&#8217;s TSP1 dwell has been declining since Week 5 and now stands at 9.1 days, approaching pre-disruption levels. These two data points could be read as positive: some relief is filtering&nbsp;through to&nbsp;certain relay nodes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the reason for that relief matters. Pipavav and Colombo are receiving&nbsp;<strong>less cargo<\/strong>&nbsp;in Week 7 \u2014 not because congestion has cleared, but because India&#8217;s share of diverted cargo has fallen from 15% to 8% and Sri Lanka&#8217;s has dropped to under 1%. The dwell improvement at downstream nodes is a consequence of cargo collapsing back into the UAE, not of the network returning to health.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-signal-worth-watching\">A\u00a0signal worth watching\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The falling diversion count may partly reflect something this dataset cannot directly&nbsp;measure:&nbsp;shippers planning around Hormuz from origin rather than diverting after the fact. Voyages committed after Week 3 \u2014 when it became clear the closure was not temporary \u2014 would not appear as diversions. They would simply never enter the Gulf-bound pipeline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three readings in the data are consistent with that shift. Jeddah is now receiving&nbsp;<strong>7.7 vessel calls per day \u2014 30% above its pre-disruption baseline<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2014 more vessel calls than before the crisis, not simply more than last week. King Abdullah Port&nbsp;retained&nbsp;62% of arriving TEUs in Week 7 without&nbsp;forwarding&nbsp;them by sea, consistent with onward land distribution toward the Saudi interior and Gulf coast via the Jeddah\u2013Riyadh corridor. And Salalah\u2019s net TEU flow reversed from peak accumulation of +27,366 in Week 5 to&nbsp;<strong>\u221220,396 in Week 7<\/strong>, dispatching far more than it receives. With the Gulf transshipment route effectively closed, that outbound flow points westward toward the Red Sea. None of these readings&nbsp;is&nbsp;conclusive on its own.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-seven-weeks-of-data-tells-us\">What seven weeks of data tells us\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Seven weeks in, the pattern is clear. Weeks 1\u20134 showed the network scrambling outward \u2014 cargo reaching India&nbsp;and&nbsp;Sri Lanka.&nbsp;Weeks 5\u20137 show the network collapsing inward. Indian Ocean relay ports have filled up, and carriers are now redirecting cargo to the nearest UAE alternative \u2014 Fujairah,&nbsp;Khawr&nbsp;Fakkan, Sharjah \u2014 and when those fill, to the next nearest. The Fujairah \u2192&nbsp;Khawr&nbsp;Fakkan lane is the starkest illustration: 496 shipments in Week 7, versus zero in the first four weeks. This is not&nbsp;new&nbsp;capacity \u2014 it is secondary congestion.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jebel Ali&#8217;s import dwell of&nbsp;46.9 days&nbsp;tells the same story. The port is not&nbsp;clearing; it is accumulating.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Strait reopening would not resolve this quickly. A 47-day backlog takes weeks to clear even at full capacity, and the structural schedule changes carriers have made do not reverse overnight.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary\u00a0 Overview&nbsp; Seven &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":77,"featured_media":79215,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"69606,2300,57181,46730,2360,9639","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"market-news-category":[663],"market-news-tag":[],"class_list":["post-79213","market-news","type-market-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market-news-category-663"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strait of Hormuz:\u00a0Cargo Is Collapsing Back\u00a0Into\u00a0the Gulf\u00a0 | 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