{"id":68139,"date":"2025-09-03T09:24:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T14:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/supply-chain-insights\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%85%b3%e7%a8%8e%ef%bc%9a%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%87%e5%b1%b1%e8%bd%a6\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T18:55:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T23:55:26","slug":"u-s-tariffs-a-rollercoaster-ride-for-global-trade","status":"publish","type":"market-news","link":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/zh-hans\/supply-chain-insights\/u-s-tariffs-a-rollercoaster-ride-for-global-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u201c\u8fc7\u5c71\u8f66\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary\">\u6982\u8981\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5c31\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u524d\u4e09\u5927\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u989d\u8f83 2024 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srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-1024x800.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-768x600.png 768w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6 \u2013 \u65af\u91cc\u5170\u5361\u79d1\u4f26\u5761\u822a\u7ebf\u662f\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u5e45\u6700\u5927\u7684\u822a\u7ebf\uff0c\u5176\u7a7a\u73ed\u7387\u6fc0\u589e 49.2 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8fde\u4e91\u6e2f \u2192 \u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u96c5\u56fe (+27.0 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9)\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u9ad8\u96c4 \u2192 \u7f8e\u56fd\u957f\u6ee9 (+22.7 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srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-2-1024x1001.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-2-300x293.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-2-768x750.png 768w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-2.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u5728\u68c0\u67e5\u627f\u8fd0\u5546\u7684\u7a7a\u767d\u822a\u6b21\u65f6\uff0c\u5dee\u5f02\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u3002 \u5728\u7f8e\u56fd-\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\uff0cOOCL \u7684\u7a7a\u767d\u822a\u8fd0\u7387\u8fbe\u5230 20.3%\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u822a\u7ebf\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u800c CMA CGM \u548c\u957f\u8363\u6d77\u8fd0 (Evergreen) \u7684\u7a7a\u767d\u822a\u8fd0\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u6216\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73 (11\u201312%)\u3002 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id=\"h-tariff-changes-lead-to-rebounding-trade-with-china\">\u5173\u7a0e\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u53cd\u5f39<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\u5bf9\u4e3b\u8981\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6709\u6240\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u7ee7\u7eed\u6ce2\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002 \u4ed4\u7ec6\u89c2\u5bdf 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u5411\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e0e\u5173\u7a0e\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"853\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-14-1024x853.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-72418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-14-1024x853.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-14-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-14-768x640.png 768w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-14.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fdb\u53e3\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u8fd0\u91cf\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u5904\u4e8e\u5f02\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6bd4 2024 \u5e74\u540c\u671f\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u9ad8\u51fa 110%\u3002 \u8fd9\u4e00\u6fc0\u589e\u662f\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\uff1a2024 \u5e74\u57fa\u51c6\u662f\u8282\u540e\/\u519c\u5386\u65b0\u5e74\u5e73\u9759\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u4e8e\u8d27\u8fd0\u5546\u7ade\u76f8\u5e94\u5bf9\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0a\u8c03\uff0c\u8ba2\u5355\u91cf\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u524d\u4e0b\u8fbe\u3002 \u4e00\u65e6\u4e0a\u8c03\u5173\u7a0e\u751f\u6548\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e93\u5b58\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u8ba2\u5355\u91cf\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3\u6bd4 2024 \u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u4f4e 15%\u3002 \u5728\u5173\u7a0e\u4ece\u5cf0\u503c 145% \u964d\u81f310% \u540e\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u6d3b\u52a8\u5df2\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6700\u7ec8\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u8fbe\u6210\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u81ea\u4e3b\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"840\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-15.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-72424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-15.png 1008w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-15-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-15-768x640.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u5f81\u6536\u7684\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u5df2\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u4ea7\u751f\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u5373\u4f7f\u5317\u4eac\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u4f46\u51fa\u53e3\u91cf\u4ecd\u6301\u7eed\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6bcf\u5468\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e0e 2024 \u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u91cf\u6301\u7eed\u5448\u73b0\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 \u9274\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u6309\u6570\u91cf\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u5927\u8fdb\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u60c5\u51b5\u5c24\u5176\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"829\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-16-1024x829.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-72430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-16-1024x829.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-16-300x243.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-16-768x622.png 768w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-16.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u7a7a\u767d\u822a\u6b21\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u5e73\u9759\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u76ee\u524d\u5982\u6b64\u3002 \u5728\u5173\u7a0e\u5347\u7ea7\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4e1c\u884c\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\uff09\u548c\u897f\u884c\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\u7684\u7a7a\u73ed\u822a\u8fd0\u90fd\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7531\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u800c\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8fd0\u529b\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u4f46\u4e24\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u5ef6\u957f\u540e\uff0c\u7a7a\u73ed\u822a\u8fd0\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5e76\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002 \u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u822a\u7ebf\u7684\u8fd0\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\uff1a<\/strong>\u867d\u7136\u5f53\u524d\u8d8b\u52bf\u6307\u5411\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u822a\u7ebf\u4ecd\u7136\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u4efb\u4f55\u8c08\u5224\u7834\u88c2\u3001\u5173\u7a0e\u91cd\u65b0\u5347\u7ea7\u6216\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u9006\u8f6c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u8d27\u8fd0\u91cf\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u7a7a\u73ed\u822a\u8fd0\u7684\u518d\u6b21\u6fc0\u589e\u3002 \u8d27\u8fd0\u5546\u5e94\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5e76\u8003\u8651\u5b9e\u73b0\u822a\u7ebf\u548c\u91c7\u8d2d\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u8f7b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tariffs-leave-u-s-imports-and-exports-proportionally-unchanged\">\u5173\u7a0e\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u5173\u7a0e\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u8d38\u6613\u6e20\u9053\uff0c\u4f462025\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u5728\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\u4ec5\u51fa\u73b0\u8f7b\u5fae\u53d8\u5316\u3002 \u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9006\u98ce\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c1a\u672a\u663e\u8457\u8c03\u6574\u91c7\u8d2d\u6216\u5ba2\u6237\u7fa4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"853\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-17-1024x853.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-72436\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-17-1024x853.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-17-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-17-768x640.png 768w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-17.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u5728\u51fa\u53e3\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u4f19\u4f34\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5176\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u4efd\u989d\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u5df2\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u8dcc 7.6%\u3002 \u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u5df2\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u8d2d\u4e70\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u8d27\u201d\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5bf9\u9152\u7c7b\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u8ba2\u8d2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u6bd4\u4f8b\u964d\u4f4e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u964d\u5e45\u6700\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u964d\u5e45\u4e3a 1%\u3002 \u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6 (+1.7%) \u548c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5 (+1.4%) \u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u51fa\u53e3\u589e\u5e45\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u591a\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u591a\u6837\u5316\u3002 <strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"929\" height=\"805\" src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-18.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-72442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-18.png 929w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-18-300x260.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-18-768x665.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u8f83\u4e3a\u6e10\u5c0f\u3002 \u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u589e\u5e45\u6700\u5927 (+1.6%)\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u56fd\u548c\u65e5\u672c (+0.6%)\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u76df (-1.4%)\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927 (-0.7%) \u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a (-0.5%) \u5747\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 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src=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-71537\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-1024x728.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/www.project44.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8.png 1047w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6 (BRICS) \u6210\u5458\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u8d8a\u5357\u3002 \u6839\u636e 2024 \u5e74 project44 \u7684\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u7684 50% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e project44 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