{"id":76620,"date":"2026-03-01T21:44:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T03:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/?post_type=market-news&#038;p=76620"},"modified":"2026-03-01T22:51:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T04:51:43","slug":"the-signal-before-the-strait-of-hormuz-closed","status":"publish","type":"market-news","link":"https:\/\/www.project44.com\/zh-hans\/supply-chain-insights\/the-signal-before-the-strait-of-hormuz-closed\/","title":{"rendered":"\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u5173\u95ed\u524d\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u5f53\u4f0a\u6717\u6d77\u519b\u4e8e 2 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u5ba3\u5e03\u5173\u95ed\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u822a\u8fd0\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u5267\u70c8\u3002\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7f57\u7279\uff08Hapag-Lloyd\uff09\u5728\u6700\u521d\u7684 24 \u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u6682\u505c\u4e86\u8fc7\u5883\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u627f\u8fd0\u4eba\u4e5f\u8fc5\u901f\u6548\u4eff\u3002\u8239\u53ea\u5728\u822a\u884c\u9014\u4e2d\u8c03\u5934\u3002\u8fd0\u8d39\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u627f\u8fd0\u4eba\u5ba3\u5e03\u5728 24 \u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u5bf9\u8fdb\u51fa\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u5f81\u6536\u9ad8\u8fbe $3,000 \u7684\u201c\u51b2\u7a81\u9644\u52a0\u8d39\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u8258\u5728\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u6cb9\u8f6e\u906d\u5230\u88ad\u51fb\u5e76\u8d77\u706b\u3002     <\/p>\n\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5173\u95ed\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u3002\u53d7\u4f0a\u6717\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4e5f\u95e8\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u91cd\u65b0\u627f\u8bfa\u653b\u51fb\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7ea2\u6d77\u7684\u8239\u53ea\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5207\u65ad\u4e86\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6e2f\u53e3\u4e0e\u4e1c\u897f\u4e24\u4fa7\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5728 project44 \u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5185\u90e8\uff0c\u66f4\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u5e76\u975e\u6765\u81ea\u8239\u53ea\u7ed5\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ece\u672a\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8ba2\u8231\u548c\u4ece\u672a\u51fa\u53d1\u7684\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u53d1\u5f80\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u8ba2\u8231\u91cf\u548c\u51fa\u53d1\u91cf\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u822a\u7ebf\u4e0a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u73b0\u5b9e\u5165\u624b\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-oil-out-everything-else-nbsp-in-nbsp\"><strong>\u77f3\u6cb9\u8f93\u51fa\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u5207\u8f93\u5165\u3002 <\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n<p>\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u51fa\u53e3\u6700\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5bf9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u78b3\u6c22\u5316\u5408\u7269\u5360\u603b\u51fa\u53e3\u4ef7\u503c\u7684 80%\u201390% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u4f46\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u3001\u673a\u68b0\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u6295\u5165\u54c1\u5219\u6d41\u5411\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002\u8fea\u62dc\u7684\u6770\u8d1d\u963f\u91cc\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u7684\u8fbe\u66fc\u3001\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u7684\u54c8\u9a6c\u5fb7\u548c\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u7684\u8212\u97e6\u8d6b\u7b49\u6e2f\u53e3\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u95e8\u6237\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4ece\u6c7d\u8f66\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u5230\u7535\u5b50\u4ea7\u54c1\u518d\u5230\u5305\u88c5\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u4e00\u5207\u7269\u8d44\u7684\u5173\u952e\u547d\u8109\u2014\u2014\u800c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7269\u8d44\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u74f6\u9888\uff1a\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5f53\u60a8\u4f9d\u9760\u8fdb\u53e3\u8d27\u7269\u7ef4\u6301\u65e5\u5e38\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65f6\uff0c\u9762\u4e34\u6d77\u4e0a\u74f6\u9888\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u3002\u77f3\u6cb9\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u53ef\u4ee5\u50a8\u5b58\u5e76\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u4f46\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u65e0\u6cd5\u8f7b\u6613\u63a8\u8fdf\u6d88\u8d39\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u9664\u975e\u4ed6\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hedging-through-inaction-nbsp\"><strong>\u901a\u8fc7\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u51b2<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n<p>project44 \u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd0\u5f80\u6d77\u6e7e\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u65b0\u51fa\u53d1\u822a\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u6839\u636e project44 \u7684\u5168\u7403\u7f51\u7edc\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u8fd0\u5f80\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8054\u5408\u914b\u957f\u56fd\u7684\u5168\u7403\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u51fa\u53d1\u91cf\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 25%\u3002\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\uff08-37%\uff09\u3001\u5361\u5854\u5c14\uff08-46%\uff09\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\uff08-44%\uff09\u7684\u964d\u5e45\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u6839\u636e\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u8fd0\u8425\u98ce\u9669\u8c03\u6574\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u8239\u53ea\u5728\u79bb\u5cb8\u4ef7\u683c\uff08FOB\uff09\u6761\u6b3e\u4e0b\u4ece\u539f\u4ea7\u5730\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4ed8\u6b3e\u4e49\u52a1\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u8d27\u7269\u5728\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93\u65f6\u5373\u5f52\u6240\u6709\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6d77\u5ce1\u5173\u95ed\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ea\u662f\u53d8\u5f97\u95f4\u6b47\u6027\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u8d27\u7269\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6ede\u7559\u5728\u951a\u5730\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7ed5\u884c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9700\u8981\u7d27\u6025\u8def\u7531\u3002\u6d77\u4e0a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210\u6346\u7ed1\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u7684\u8425\u8fd0\u8d44\u91d1\u3002      <\/p>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\u8fd8\u6709\uff1a <\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6218\u4e89\u98ce\u9669\u9644\u52a0\u8d39 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7d27\u6025\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u8d39 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7ed5\u884c\u6210\u672c <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4fdd\u9669\u8c03\u6574\u6216\u53d6\u6d88 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u76ca\u53d8\u5316\u8fc5\u901f\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u6258\u8fd0\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0d\u662f\u6539\u9053\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6682\u505c\u3002project44 \u5728\u5176\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u3002     <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u6216\u7ea2\u6d77\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4ee5\u540e\u52a0\u901f\u8ba2\u8231\u3002\u8239\u53ea\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u9760\u6e2f\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u8d76\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u4ece\u539f\u4ea7\u5730\u51fa\u53d1\u540e\u6d77\u5ce1\u5173\u95ed\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u6210\u672c\u3001\u9644\u52a0\u8d39\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ed5\u884c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7269\u6d41\u96be\u9898\u3002    <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-salalah-nbsp-the-nbsp-oman-nbsp-port-that-nbsp-will-nbsp-become-nbsp-a-consequential-nbsp-logistics-nbsp-hub-of-the-arabian-nbsp-peninsula-nbsp\"><strong>\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\uff1a\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u534a\u5c9b\u91cd\u8981\u7269\u6d41\u67a2\u7ebd\u7684\u963f\u66fc\u6e2f\u53e3<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u548c\u7ea2\u6d77\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u88ab\u5207\u65ad\uff0c\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u534a\u5c9b\u4e0a\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4f9b\u6d77\u6e7e\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u2014\u2014<strong>\u963f\u66fc\u585e\u62c9\u83b1<\/strong>\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u6770\u8d1d\u963f\u91cc\u548c\u6d77\u6e7e\u4e3b\u8981\u6e2f\u53e3\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\u4f4d\u4e8e\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6d77\uff0c\u5904\u4e8e\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u4e4b\u5916\u3002\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6df1\u6c34 capacity\uff0c\u4e14\u65e0\u9700\u8239\u53ea\u901a\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u74f6\u9888\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u548c\u7ea2\u6d77\u5c40\u52bf\u7d27\u5f20\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\u4e00\u76f4\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u538b\u529b\u91ca\u653e\u9600\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cproject44 \u7684\u6570\u636e\u5df2\u7ecf\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u8fdb\u51fa\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\u7684\u8d27\u91cf\u8f6c\u79fb\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d27\u7269\u6b64\u524d\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u4ed6\u6d77\u6e7e\u6e2f\u53e3\u8f6c\u8fd0\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e24\u5468\u91cc\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u7ecf\u7531\u8fea\u62dc\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u6770\u8d1d\u963f\u91cc\u8f6c\u8fd0\u81f3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u77f3\u5316\u7f50\u5f0f\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8d27\u91cf\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u7ecf\u7531\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\u8fd0\u8f93\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u963f\u66fc\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u8f6c\u67a2\u7ebd\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u7387\u5c06\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8be5\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u62e5\u5835\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\u53ef\u4ee5\u5438\u6536\u589e\u91cf\u8d27\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5438\u6536\u53d1\u5f80\u6d77\u6e7e\u8d27\u7269\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6539\u9053\u5219\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728 1 \u6708\u548c 2 \u6708\u8c03\u6574\u6d77\u6e7e\u822a\u7ebf\u7684\u6258\u8fd0\u4eba\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u70b9\uff1a\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u53d6\u7ec6\u81f4\u5230\u822a\u7ebf\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u8fd0\u8f93\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u5177\u5907\u636e\u6b64\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u5206\u6790\u80fd\u529b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>project44 \u7684 Port Intel \u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fbe\u66fc\u81f3\u4e0a\u6d77\u7684\u5ef6\u8bef\u5728 1 \u6708\u548c 2 \u6708\u8fde\u7eed\u6570\u5468\u8fbe\u5230 100% \u7684\u51c6\u65f6\u7387\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u5f53\u6770\u8d1d\u963f\u91cc\u7684\u8f6c\u8fd0\u505c\u7559\u65f6\u95f4\u5f00\u59cb\u521d\u6b65\u6500\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u6210\u719f\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u4fbf\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u822a\u7ebf\u51b3\u7b56\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u585e\u62c9\u83b1\u5e76\u975e\u5728\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u542f\u52a8\u7684\u5e94\u6025\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u4ecd\u6709 capacity \u5438\u6536\u8f6c\u79fb\u65f6\u6267\u884c\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u8f6c\u578b\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u53ef\u89c1\u6027\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u60c5\u62a5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-comes-next-nbsp\"><strong>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u6d77\u6e7e\u6e2f\u53e3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6258\u8fd0\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u672b\u53ef\u505a\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u660e\u663e\u5dee\u4e8e 2 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