Summary:
- Diversions remained elevated into Week 2, with a peak of 2,214 recorded on March 11. The initial Week‑1 surge has eased, but volumes are still well above pre‑closure levels as carriers settle into revised rotations.
- Network rebalancing is underway: Abu Dhabi fell from 3,477 diversion origins in Week 1 to 1,438 in Week 2, while Dubai/Jebel Ali emerged as primary origins. On destinations, Sri Lanka (Hambantota) rose from 358 to 1,116; UAE share slipped from 41% → 31%; Pakistan dropped 93%; Saudi doubled (3% → 8%); China expanded (1% → 4%); Oman declined (14% → 10%). India increased (17% → 19%), reflecting its growing role as an alternative regional gateway.
- Delays are concentrating at India’s west‑coast hubs: Mundra arrivals climbed from 35.4 → 47.2 → 48.6 days (pre‑closure, Week 1, Week 2) while departures eased from 16.9 → 13.7 days after an initial spike (6.0 → 16.9 → 13.7). Navi Mumbai arrivals improved (14.7 → 15.6 → 7.3 days) even as departures continued to build (4.2 → 11.9 → 15.4 days), signaling a pass‑through gateway pattern with outbound bottlenecks.
Overview
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has now entered its third week. What began as emergency rerouting is evolving into broader adjustments in carrier networks and port calls across the region. Diversions remain elevated, but the pattern of those diversions is beginning to change as carriers adapt their routing strategies.
Two weeks into the disruption, shipping networks are starting to shift cargo farther east into the Indian Ocean while congestion builds at India’s west-coast gateways. Ports such as Hambantota in Sri Lanka and India’s major gateways are increasingly absorbing traffic that would normally move through Gulf hubs.
In Week 2 (March 8–15), diversion volumes remained well above pre-closure levels, reaching a peak of 2,214 on March 11 . The immediate surge of emergency diversions seen in Week 1 is beginning to stabilize, but operational pressure is intensifying at the ports receiving rerouted cargo, particularly across South Asia.
Diversions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to be elevated
The disruption continues to heavily affect vessel traffic patterns. With vessels unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, containers are being diverted to ports that remain accessible without transiting the strait. Diversion volumes in Week 2 stayed well above pre-closure levels, even as the initial surge from Week 1 began to ease. This chart below shows the full diversion trend from February 20 through March 15.
Week 2 broadly mirrors the shape of Week 1, but the underlying pattern is beginning to shift in meaningful ways. Three developments stand out.
Abu Dhabi saw a sharp drop as a diversion origin, falling from 3,477 shipments in Week 1 to just 1,438 in Week 2. In its place, Dubai and Jebel Ali emerged as the primary points of origin. This indicates carriers are shifting primary ports of call rather than simply rerouting individual vessels.
On the destination side, Hambantota in Sri Lanka more than tripled week over week, rising from 358 to 1,116 shipments and emerging as a key waypoint for vessels rerouting through the Indian Ocean. Nearly half of those vessels were originally bound for Sohar in Oman, indicating that carriers are pushing traffic farther east into the Indian Ocean as they recalibrate their networks.
Meanwhile, Pakistan effectively disappeared as a destination, down 93% from the prior week. This suggests carriers are steering clear of the northern Arabian Sea due to its proximity to the conflict zone.
MSC remains the carrier most affected overall, holding the highest total number of diversions across both weeks. However, the carrier landscape shifted noticeably in Week 2. Hapag-Lloyd moved from fourth to third place, driven by a 72% week‑over‑week increase in diversions. CMA CGM also saw an uptick of 21%, while Maersk pulled back by 25%.
These differences reflect how each carrier’s network is structured and the degree of Gulf exposure it carried into the disruption. MSC’s outsized Week 1 figures underscored just how much of its network was running through the region. Hapag-Lloyd, by contrast, appears to have taken longer to implement broad changes across its Asia–Gulf–Europe services and is now accelerating its adjustments.
The geographic distribution of diversion destinations is also shifting as carriers spread cargo across alternative ports. The UAE remains the top destination for diverted cargo, but its share of total diversions fell from 41% in Week 1 to 31% in Week 2. That ten point decline is the clearest indication yet that congestion is building at UAE ports and carriers are beginning to distribute traffic more broadly across the region.
Sri Lanka saw the most significant change in share, rising from 6% of all diversions in Week 1 to 15% in Week 2. Much of that increase is concentrated at Hambantota, which is emerging as a key waypoint for vessels rerouting through the Indian Ocean.
Saudi Arabia’s share doubled from 3% to 8% as Jeddah and King Abdullah Port absorbed cargo that would typically move through Gulf hubs. China also expanded from 1% to 4%, suggesting some carriers are now extending diversions all the way to East Asian ports rather than stopping in the Gulf.
India edged up from 17% to 19%, a steady increase reflecting its growing role as an alternative regional gateway. Oman, by contrast, declined from 14% to 10% as traffic that previously moved through Gulf adjacent ports is pushed farther east.
The UAE remains the largest single destination at 31%, but the drop from Week 1 underscores how carriers are actively spreading the load as pressure builds across its port network.
Arrival and departure delays at Indian ports
Mundra (INMUN) and Navi Mumbai (INNSA) continue to absorb significant pressure from diverted cargo, but the way that strain is showing up differs sharply between the two ports.
Calculation: 7 day rolling median of delays based on planned last dates for POL departure and POD arrival, pre-closure (27 February) vs post-closure (8 March)
In Mundra, Average arrival delays climbed from 35.4 days before the closure to 47.2 days in Week 1 and 48.6 days in Week 2, a roughly 37% increase overall. Navi Mumbai, by contrast, shows a more volatile pattern. Arrivals rose slightly from 14.7 days pre‑closure to 15.6 days in Week 1, then fell sharply to 7.3 days in Week 2, suggesting inbound congestion is easing even as diverted volumes continue to move through the port.
Departure delays tell the opposite story. At Mundra, departures surged from 6.0 days before the closure to 16.9 days in Week 1, before settling back to 13.7 days in Week 2. While still elevated, the Week 2 pullback indicates that outbound operations are gradually stabilizing despite the heavy arrival backlog. Navi Mumbai, however, is seeing mounting pressure on the outbound side. Departure delays have risen from 4.2 days pre‑closure to 11.9 days in Week 1 and 15.4 days in Week 2, more than tripling overall. The divergence between improving arrival times and worsening departure times suggests Navi Mumbai is functioning increasingly as a pass‑through gateway, where outbound bottlenecks are becoming the primary constraint.
Taken together, the two ports illustrate how India’s west coast is absorbing the disruption in different ways. Mundra is backing up on arrivals as it acts as a final destination for rerouted cargo, while Navi Mumbai is feeling the strain on departures where outbound flows intensify.
Summary
The escalation of conflict across the Middle East after March 1 created immediate uncertainty for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting carriers to pause transit, delay bookings, and reposition vessels into safer waters. That volatility has continued into Week 2, and the operational effects are becoming more pronounced.
Diversions remain elevated, but the pattern is shifting as carriers adjust their networks. Origins are moving away from Abu Dhabi toward Dubai and Jebel Ali, destinations are pushing farther east into Sri Lanka and beyond, and carriers are recalibrating their Asia–Gulf–Europe services at different speeds.
Ports receiving this traffic are feeling the strain in different ways, from mounting arrival backlogs at Mundra to growing outbound congestion at Navi Mumbai. As carriers settle into revised rotations, the next phase of the disruption will likely be defined less by sudden diversion spikes and more by sustained congestion at the ports absorbing rerouted cargo.
With war risk exposure still high and no clear timeline for when carriers will resume transiting the Strait, diversions will remain a defining feature of the operating environment. Delays, schedule changes, and shifting port calls are likely to continue affecting cargo flows across the Indian Ocean and South Asian trade corridors in the weeks ahead.
