When Iran’s navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, global shipping markets reacted with alarm. Hapag-Lloyd suspended transits within the first 24 hours with other major carriers quickly following suit. Vessels turned around mid-voyage. Freight rates spiked, with some carriers announcing ‘conflict surcharges’ of up to $3,000 per container in or out of the Middle East within 24 hours. An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked and caught fire.
And it was not just the Persian Gulf that effectively closed down. The Houthi rebels of Yemen that are backed by the Iranian government renewed their commitment to attack vessels passing through the Red Sea, effectively cutting off Saudi Arabia’s ports from both the east and the west.
But inside project44’s network, the more consequential signal wasn’t in vessel diversions. It was in the bookings that never happened, and the containers that never departed.
Over the past two weeks, bookings and departures of goods bound for Persian Gulf destinations have fallen sharply across multiple consumer and industrial lanes. To understand why, you have to start with the structural reality of the region.
Oil out. Everything else in.
The Persian Gulf states are among the most export-concentrated economies in the world. For most, hydrocarbons represent 80–90%+ of total exports by value.
But consumer goods, machinery, food products, and industrial inputs move in the opposite direction. These are largely import-dependent economies. And ports like Jebel Ali in Dubai, Dammam in Saudi Arabia, Hamad in Qatar, and Shuwaikh in Kuwait are not just gateways, they are critical arteries for everything from automotive parts to electronics to packaged food — all of which transits via a single chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz.
When you rely on inbound goods for daily economic function, exposure to a maritime chokepoints becomes asymmetric. Oil producers can store and stage exports. Importers cannot easily delay consumption.
Unless they choose to.
Hedging through inaction
Over the last two months, project44 data shows a dramatic reduction in new departures destined for Gulf ports. Based on project44’s global network intelligence, global departures of containers bound for the United Arab Emirates are down 25% year over year. The decline is even more stark for Kuwait (-37%), Qatar (-46%), and Saudi Arabia (-44%).
Importers appear to have adjusted exposure based on financial and operational risk: if vessels depart origin under FOB terms, payment obligations begin. Inventory is owned while still on the water. If the Strait closes or even becomes intermittently unsafe, cargo could sit at anchor. Or divert. Or require emergency routing. And every day at sea becomes working capital tied up in uncertainty.
Add to that:
- War risk surcharges
- Emergency security premiums
- Potential diversion costs
- Insurance adjustments or cancellations
The economics change quickly. For many shippers, the cheaper decision was not to reroute. It was to pause. What project44 saw in its data was not panic. It was calculated hedging.
Importers understand that if Hormuz or the Red Sea open up, they can accelerate bookings later. Vessels will continue to call. Supply chains can catch up. But with the strait closed after containers depart from their origin, they face these higher inventory costs, surcharges, and logistical headaches from diversions.
Salalah: the Oman port that will become a consequential logistics hub of the Arabian Peninsula
With the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea effectively cut off, there is just one viable alternative on the Arabian Peninsula accessible to the Gulf countries — Salalah, Oman.
Unlike Jebel Ali and the major Gulf ports, Salalah sits on the Arabian Sea, outside the Strait of Hormuz. It provides deepwater capacity without requiring vessels to transit either chokepoint.
In prior periods of Hormuz and Red Sea tension, Salalah has functioned as a pressure-release valve. And indeed, project44 data has already shown signals of a shift of volumes in and out of Salalah that previously were transshipped via other Gulf ports. For example, in the past two weeks, regular petrochemical tank container volume that previously transshipped via Jebel Ali near Dubai en route to China is now transiting via Salalah.
We expect significantly greater use of Oman as a staging hub and congestion in this port to rise significantly. Salalah can absorb incremental volume. Absorbing a structural reroute of Gulf-bound cargo is a different equation.
The shippers who moved their Gulf routings in January and February had one thing in common: access to granular, lane-level shipment data and the analytical capability to act on it.
project44’s Port Intel data showed Dammam–Shanghai delays hitting 100% on-time failure rates for multiple consecutive weeks in January and February. And when Jebel Ali transshipment dwell began its early climb, sophisticated oil and gas exports made their routing decisions.
Salalah wasn’t a contingency plan activated in an emergency. It was an operational pivot executed while there was still capacity to absorb the shift.
That’s the difference between supply chain visibility and supply chain intelligence.
What comes next
For shippers still exposed to Gulf ports, the decisions available this weekend are materially worse than the decisions available in February. Roll rates on US–UAE lanes were already climbing before the closure, from 14% to 21% over four weeks. With vessel network reconfiguration now underway, those rates will move significantly higher.
The longer-term routing question points toward the Cape of Good Hope. Asia–Europe cargo that previously moved through Suez — already disrupted by Houthi activity in the Red Sea — now faces a second chokepoint. Some lanes will absorb the cost of the longer routing. Others will absorb the cost of waiting.
project44 is tracking both in real time across our global network and will continue reporting on the impact to the global supply chain.
Supporting customers during this disruption
Considering the rapidly evolving situation in the Gulf, project44 will support customers by providing complementary access to Port Intel to help teams quantify port congestion risk, monitor vessel activity in real time, and evaluate alternative routing options with greater confidence.
project44 is the leader in decision intelligence and context-fueled AI for the modern supply chain. Data referenced in this analysis is drawn from project44’s proprietary network and reflects shipment-level intelligence as of March 1, 2026.
