The United States is currently navigating a complex web of trade negotiations, with several deals finalized, others still pending, and some countries under significant pressure to reach agreements due to impending tariffs. As of July 2025, the U.S. has made notable strides in securing trade agreements with several countries, while others remain locked in negotiations that will determine the future of their trading relationships with the U.S.
Finalized trade deals
United Kingdom (UK):
- Agreement: The U.S. and UK signed an Economic Prosperity Deal on June 30, 2025.
- Key Provisions: The deal includes provisions that reduce tariffs on British exports, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, while expanding market access for U.S. agricultural exports.
Vietnam:
- Agreement: A trade deal was reached on July 2, 2025.
- Key Provisions: Vietnam agreed to a 20% tariff on its exports to the U.S., replacing the previous 10% tariff rate. Additionally, products suspected of being transshipped from China will face a 40% tariff. This agreement also eliminates tariffs on certain U.S. exports to Vietnam, providing a more favorable trade environment between the two nations.
China:
- Agreement: A preliminary trade agreement was reached on June 26, 2025.
- Key Provisions: The agreement involves easing restrictions on rare earth exports from China to the U.S., while the U.S. has agreed to lift certain export controls on Chinese products.
Pending trade deals
While several agreements have been finalized, there are still countries in ongoing negotiations with the U.S.
India:
- Status: Negotiations are ongoing, with President Trump stating that the U.S. is “close to making a deal with India.”
- Key Issues: Disagreements remain over agricultural exports and market access for U.S. products.
- Expected Outcome: A comprehensive trade agreement is anticipated, potentially addressing tariffs and market access concerns.
European Union (EU):
- Status: Negotiations are ongoing, with the EU seeking exemptions and preferential rates.
- Key Issues: Discussions include maintaining a baseline of 10% tariffs for cooperative countries and addressing EU tech regulations.
- Expected Outcome: A tentative trade agreement is expected, with potential provisions, including limited industry exceptions.
Canada:
- Status: Negotiations resumed after Canada dropped a controversial tax plan.
- Key Issues: Discussions focus on digital services taxes and market access.
- Expected Outcome: A trade agreement is anticipated, with talks aiming to be completed by July 21, 2025.
Countries expected to reach deals
As the deadline for new tariffs looms, several countries are expected to finalize trade agreements with the U.S. after receiving letters yesterday outlining what new tariffs will start August 1st without a trade deal in place.
Japan and South Korea:
- Status: Both countries received tariff letters in early July warning of the imposition of a 25% tariff on their exports if a deal is not reached by August 1, 2025.
- Why Expected: These nations are significant U.S. trading partners, and negotiations are ongoing. A deal is likely to be struck before the deadline.
- Expected Inclusions: The key issues at stake include automotive tariffs, agricultural market access, and alignment on trade practices.
Other Countries:
- Status: Countries such as Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Laos, and several nations in Europe and Africa also received tariff warnings from the U.S. in early July.
- Why Expected: These nations are expected to enter negotiations to avoid the steep tariffs, which range from 25% to 40% on various products.
- Expected Inclusions: Potential agreements may address market access, tariff reductions, and compliance with U.S. trade standards.
Conclusion
The next few weeks are critical for global trade as countries scramble to finalize agreements with the U.S. The ongoing negotiations and the looming threat of increased tariffs highlight the significant economic and geopolitical consequences of trade policy decisions. While some countries have successfully concluded deals, others are still navigating complex discussions. The outcomes of these negotiations will shape the future of U.S. trade relations for years to come, with the potential to reshape global supply chains, market access, and tariff structures.
