The most impactful transformations to retail supply chains don’t start with isolated problem solving but with a clear understanding of your company’s strategic priorities, then an action plan that demonstrates how supply chain improvements can serve those initiatives.
When properly implemented, an enhanced supply chain can give retailers a decisive operational advantage—creating exceptional customer experience that competitors can’t match. Though you can’t upgrade all of your supply chain operations at once, you can prioritize short-term technology investments that will enhance your e-Commerce delivery capabilities with measurable ROI in 2025.
Read on to learn more about the state of e-commerce delivery performance in 2024, and how to improve your supply chain operations and outcomes in 2025.
The 2024 e-commerce delivery reality: What our data shows
Speed isn’t the end-all, be-all when it comes to maximizing the business impact of your supply chain but reliability and consistency are paramount. When delivery issues arise, retailers must be proactive in communicating with customers and managing their expectations.
project44 tracked last-mile shipments from 444 different carriers in 2024, providing a comprehensive view of the e-commerce delivery landscape heading into 2025.
Our exclusive data revealed four key insights about the state of online retail fulfillment:
Promise times are decreasing—but season matters
Promise time, or estimated delivery time, plays a critical role in helping retailers manage customer expectations and maintain high rates of customer satisfaction with their delivery experience. In 2024, promise times were consistently under five days per shipment, a significant improvement from previous years. However, these times consistently rise during peak holiday shopping seasons, indicating that supply chain efficiency decreases as shipping volume increases. This pattern has repeated for four consecutive years, highlighting a persistent challenge for retailers.
Delivery times have plateaued
Good news for e-commerce brands: parcel delivery times have not only declined in recent years, but they’ve largely kept pace with improving promise times.
The bad news: Despite the improvement in delivery times (April 2023 was a full day faster than April 2022), progress seems to have stalled in 2024. This plateau suggests that retailers may be hitting a wall with optimizing shipping and fulfillment across their existing carrier network.
Within those macro trends, though, retailers still have opportunities to optimize their carrier network for faster delivery times—as long as they have visibility into the performance data for each carrier.
On-time performance is declining
On-time performance rates saw a significant improvement in 2023, suggesting that retailers had significantly improved their ability to predict delivery ETAs for their shipments.
It was a different story in 2024. After a quick rise to on-time performance rates above 86 percent, on-time delivery declined every month after hitting its peak in August. Year-over-year on-time performance was down more than five percent in December 2024, hitting the lowest mark in nearly two years.
One notable trend in the above charts: while average delivery times increased over the last four months of 2024, so did promise times. Even with these adjustments, though, retailers struggled to accurately predict when their shipments would arrive.
Customer complaints reveal critical pain points
When something goes wrong with your last-mile delivery experience, there are two likely causes: either a shipping delay or a shipment that is “delivered but missing.”
These two issues tied for the most common customer complaint in 2024, each accounting for 29 percent of all responses. Notably, neither of these issues is related to speed of delivery, highlighting that delivery dependability is responsible for driving customer satisfaction.
Additionally, poor communication—along with a failure to proactively manage expectations—is often just as much to blame for negative experiences that cause customers to churn. When retailers lack visibility into their supply chain, they can’t proactively manage customer expectations, turning minor delays into major frustrations.
How retailers can ‘make a promise, keep a promise’ for their customers
Supply chain visibility is the key that unlocks all doors to creating this high-touch environment. Once that visibility is secured, you can take the first steps in building an optimized supply chain for your retail business.
Beyond this, the data clearly shows that e-commerce retailers can differentiate themselves through reliability and communication, creating high-touch experiences that are built on personalized engagement and proactive customer service.
Here’s how to set up this transformation for success:
- Don’t try to change too much at once
When planning strategic changes, enhanced supply chain capabilities are enabled by three key elements: cost, speed, and reliability, but attempting to maximize performance in all three areas at the same time is unrealistic. Instead, try and identify two core elements that best align with your business model and customer expectations.
For example, if you’re an e-retailer with only one fulfillment center and no brick-and-mortar stores, speed shouldn’t be the focus: the cost of expedited freight will eat up your profit margins. But prioritizing cost-effective shipping and consistent on-time delivery allows you to make realistic delivery promises and keep them, building customer trust without sacrificing profit.
- Diversify your carrier network
It’s tempting to use a single carrier for all of your retail shipping, particularly when they offer fast delivery and on-time performance that aligns with your strategic initiatives.
However, our data from the COVID-19 pandemic shows that single-sourcing carriers creates dangerous vulnerabilities. As online retail orders surged, carriers were pushed to capacity. Overwhelmed supply chains suffered from shipping inefficiencies and significant delays in delivering shipments to doorsteps.
Future supply chain disruptions are inevitable. Natural disasters, severe weather, and labor shortages are just a few examples of significant events that can suddenly throw supply chains into disarray.
A diverse network of carriers improves your supply chain resilience and your ability to optimize shipment routing across the best-fit providers.
- Overcommunicate with customers—especially when problems arise
On-time delivery will never hit 100 percent. No matter how hard you try, some shipping promises will go unmet but customer satisfaction can actually increase after a shipping issue, if it’s handled with proactive communication and excellent service.
We’ve measured this across thousands of retailers and found three key factors that transform potential disappointments into loyalty-building opportunities:
- Proactive resolution of order issues: Proactively reach out to customers to provide status updates and facilitate alternative solutions before delays or other issues arise.
- Customer-enabled visibility: Offer automated SMS, email updates, and self-service portals to inform customers with the latest shipping information, including delivery ETAs.
- Dynamic carrier optimization: Use diverse shipping and fulfillment providers to reroute shipments and address order issues on the fly.
These approaches directly improve critical business metrics:
- Net Promoter Score (NPS): This metric uses a single survey question to measure overall customer loyalty and satisfaction.
- Customer lifetime value (LTV): Quantifies your brand’s ability to retain its customers and maximize revenue from those relationships.
- Average order value (AOV): Average order value represents the amount of money customers spend in a typical transaction and reflects their trust in your fulfillment capabilities.
6 critical e-Commerce logistics features for 2025
An optimized supply chain is your company’s ticket to maximizing the business impact of your supply chain investments.
But choosing the right investments is equally important—especially when new technology must be aligned with strategic goals. As you plan your supply chain upgrades, here are six essential capabilities you’ll want to consider:
Consumer Visibility
Give customers a transparent, on-demand view into their delivery experience. Consumer visibility will reduce your volume of “Where is my order?” (WISMO) calls while increasing your NPS and customer satisfaction scores.
Predictive Delivery Dates
Use historical and real-time data to set and satisfy customer expectations. Predictive delivery ETAs help customers make more informed decisions at check-out, increasing sales and overall customer confidence.
Last Mile Insights
Optimize carrier performance through real-time reporting and planning that consolidates scattered carrier data using Last Mile Insights to predict potential delivery issues before they impact customers.
Last Mile Resolution
Proactively address order issues as they arise with Last Mile Resolution that uses business rules, machine learning, real-time notifications, that improve carrier accountability and reduce average resolution times by up to 80 percent.
Last Mile Connect
Utilize API integration to gather normalized, enriched, and predictive delivery data across all modes with Last Mile Connect—enhancing communication and customer experience.
Delivery Appointment Scheduling
Automate complex scheduling processes using Delivery Appoint Scheduling to streamline scheduling and simplify your last-mile customer experience.
Turn your supply chain into a high-performance value center
The data is clear: Retailers can’t meet their strategic goals without a strong, agile, efficient supply chain supporting their fulfillment operations. Project44’s platform offers complete visibility and control, whether you’re prioritizing cost-efficient shipping, fast delivery times, or consistent on-time performance, so you can build an optimized supply chain that delivers business impact on your terms.
See how you can transform your e-commerce delivery experience—schedule a personalized demo today.
