On August 31, 2025, key exclusions under Section 301 tariffs are set to expire, ending duty-free treatment for hundreds of imports from China. While the changes are procedural, the expiration is a signal of what lies ahead: a trade landscape increasingly shaped by targeted tariffs designed to protect U.S. investments and shift global supply chain dynamics.
Why Section 301 still matters
Section 301 tariffs, first imposed in 2018 under the Trump administration, were a response to Chinaās policies on technology transfer and intellectual property. Despite years of measures, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representativeās (USTR) four-year review found those practices persist. Consistent with the May 2024 directive, USTR finalized targeted tariff increases for products like semiconductors, batteries, EVs, medical supplies, and more.
This approach reflects more than a trade dispute. It is part of a broader industrial strategy to reduce reliance on China, protect domestic manufacturing, and strengthen supply chain resilience.
What will change on August 31
Two major sets of exclusions are scheduled to end:
- 164 product exclusions extended in May 2024.
- 14 solar manufacturing equipment exclusions granted in September 2024.
Once they expire, goods that previously avoided tariffs, including specialized machinery and solar inputs, will face Section 301 duties. These changes align with a broader timeline of tariff adjustments continuing through 2026, such as:
- Semiconductors: Tariffs rising to 50% in 2025.
- Medical gloves: Tariffs moving to 50% in 2025 and 100% in 2026.
- Natural graphite and permanent magnets: Tariffs of 25% in 2026.
- Lithium-ion batteries: Passenger EV batteries already at 25%, with broader categories scheduled for 25% in 2026.
The bigger picture
The objectives behind these measures are to:
- Support U.S. manufacturing: Shield domestic investments in semiconductors, batteries, and clean energy from underpriced imports.
- Build resilient supply chains: Reduce dependencies in critical industries where China currently dominates.
- Promote fair competition: Counter unfair practices related to technology transfer and IP.
Industry Impacts
The expiration of Section 301 exclusions and the scheduled tariff increases are more than incremental cost adjustments. They represent a shift in how industries will need to structure their supply chains over the next several years. Here are the ripple effects and their potential impact across several industries:
- Automotive and EVs: Tariffs on batteries and critical minerals may drive supplier diversification and influence production costs.
- Technology and Electronics: Semiconductor tariffs add costs but reinforce federal investments in U.S. chip manufacturing.
- Renewable Energy: Solar and battery tariffs may increase near-term project costs while aiming to bolster U.S. competitiveness long-term.
- Healthcare: Steep increases on gloves, syringes, and needles underscore efforts to expand domestic capacity in essential medical goods.
Why decision intelligence matters
For supply chain leaders, the challenge isnāt simply knowing when tariffs change, itās being ready for what comes after. Trade policy shifts like Section 301 demonstrate how quickly costs and sourcing strategies can be reshaped.
This is where decision intelligence becomes critical. By bringing together visibility, data, and context, platforms like project44 helps businesses:
- Understand where their supply chains are most exposed to external shocks.
- Anticipate how policy changes could affect operations and costs.
- Evaluate options for building flexibility and resilience in their networks.
While the exact tools will evolve, the principle is clear: companies that embrace decision intelligence can make better-informed choices in an environment where trade policy will continue to play a decisive role in shaping supply chains.
Looking Ahead
The expiration of exclusions on August 31 is one step in a phased approach that extends into 2026. Tariffs will continue to evolve, and with them, the cost structures and sourcing strategies of global industries.
For businesses, the takeaway is clear: tariffs are no longer temporary disruptions. They are part of the structural landscape of global trade. Supply chains that embed decision intelligence into their operations will be best equipped to navigate not only this expiration, but the broader shifts yet to come.
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