Overview
Nearly eight months into the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the impact on ocean freight is easing. Weekly diversions from the Middle East and transshipment dwell at key ports are below peak levels for the conflict but remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.
Weekly diversions are below peak but leveling off well above pre-conflict levels
Diversions from Middle East ports peaked in the week starting Mar 23 at about 8.4 times the pre-conflict weekly level, then fell through the summer. Over the last four weeks (Sep 28 to Oct 25), diversions edged up from the previous four weeks, averaging about 2.4 times the pre-conflict level.
Transshipment dwell is still above pre-conflict levels at key ports
Transshipment (TSP) dwell is the time containers wait at a port to be moved onto another vessel. Because transshipment ports connect to many onward routes, longer waits there can spread to later parts of a journey, which is why this measure is watched as an early sign of congestion.
At six key ports, TSP dwell over the last four weeks (Sep 28 to Oct 25) is above its pre-conflict baseline (Jan 5 to Feb 23), from 12% higher at Port Said to 59% higher at Hambantota and Mundra.
- Hambantota: 17.4 days versus 11.0 (+59%)
- Mundra: 10.6 days versus 6.7 (+59%)
- Colombo: 8.6 days versus 5.8 (+49%)
- Salalah: 6.2 days versus 4.7 (+33%)
- Singapore: 7.6 days versus 6.4 (+20%)
- Port Said: 5.6 days versus 5.0 (+12%)
Export dwell is higher than the pre-conflict baseline at four ports. At Jebel Ali it averages 26.8 days across the conflict versus 8.5 days pre-conflict (+215%). At Dammam it is 9.3 days versus 5.0 (+85%), at Jeddah 9.2 versus 7.3 (+25%) and at Mundra 6.7 versus 5.5 (+23%).
TEU capacity at Cape of Good Hope ports jumped early in the conflict but reduced over the past four weeks
TEU figures in this section represent the total capacity of the ships that arrived at each port, not the number of containers loaded or discharged.
In the last four weeks (Sep 28 to Oct 25), weekly TEU capacity arriving at the five Cape of Good Hope ports combined (Durban, Cape Town, Walvis Bay, Port Elizabeth and Maputo) is 6.2% above its pre-conflict baseline (Jan 5 to Feb 23). It reaches its peak in the week starting Apr 6, at 80% above the baseline.
Walvis Bay is up 12% year-over-year and up 9% over the last 8 weeks, with a decline only in the past four weeks.
