Summary:
- Blank sailings on key U.S. trade lanes are down 65% compared to their annual peak in April once “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced, demonstrating a stabilization in sailing schedules as the dust continues to settle around the new tariffs.
- Blank sailings on China–U.S. and Asia–U.S. routes are down versus November 2023 and 2024, except China–U.S., which is up 75% from 2024 demonstrating the ripple effect from the tariffs.
- U.S. imports from China and exports to China remain lower through November. Exports are still down year over year, but November’s 23% decline marks the smallest variance since January. If this continues to normalize, it could be indicative of successful trade deals with China.
- Thailand saw a decline in trade in November compared to 2024 (-3%) but is still trending at a 33% increase in 2025 compared to 2024. Indonesia continued to see increases compared to November 2024 (+26%) and is up 34% overall in 2025.
Overview
The tariff landscape in 2025 has been shaped by the sweeping overhaul introduced on April 2, known by the administration as “Liberation Day.” The United States imposed a flat 10% tariff on nearly all imported goods while raising duties on strategic sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts under Section 232. Some auto related categories now face tariffs of 25%, and the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act broadened coverage even further with certain products carrying total tariff burdens above 40%. These changes triggered immediate supply chain disruptions, increasing costs and prompting companies to reassess sourcing strategies, pricing and inventory management.
As the year progressed, the market gradually absorbed these shocks. Blank sailings on key U.S. lanes fell 65% from their April peak as carriers returned to more predictable schedules and shippers adjusted to the tariff driven demand environment. U.S. imports from China and exports to China remained below prior years, though exports showed early signs of recovery with November posting the smallest year over year decline since January. Meanwhile, Thailand and Indonesia appear to be strengthening their roles as alternative sourcing hubs for U.S. importers.
Despite these signs of stabilization, uncertainty persists. A major Supreme Court case will determine whether the administration’s expansive use of tariff authority is constitutional, and several large importers have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for duties they contend were improperly applied. Diplomatic negotiations have provided selective relief for allies, yet the flat 10% tariff and additional sector-based surcharges largely remain intact. With policy outcomes still unresolved, shipping patterns may continue normalizing for now, but the broader legal and regulatory landscape leaves the door open for renewed volatility.
Blank sailings data shows normalization in sailing schedules
In 2025, blank sailings data illustrates how carriers are responding to tariff-driven disruption in US trade. The chart below outlines the total number of blank sailings per month on major U.S. trade lanes (Asia-U.S., China-U.S., Europe-U.S.) that have been most impacted by the tariffs.
April 2025 marks the peak in blank sailings at a total of 131 blank sailings across these 6 routes. The lanes with the most blank sailings that month were Asia to the U.S. at 39, China to the U.S. at 33, and the U.S. to China at 30. These three lanes have had the highest rates of blank sailings throughout the year.
November 2025 saw a 65% decrease in blank sailings compared to the peak in April, with a total of 46 blank sailings across all 6 routes. This rate of blank sailings is considered normal, and it demonstrates that sailing schedules have normalized compared to the tumultuous months observed earlier in 2025.
In November, China to the U.S. has the highest rate at 14 blank sailings, with the U.S. to Asia at 10 and the U.S. to China at 9. The chart below looks at how these numbers compare to November in past years.
Here, we can see that the overall blank sailing rates in November on these lanes is in better shape than it has been in previous years for Asia to the U.S. (-25%, U.S. to Asia (-23%), and U.S. to China (-10%).
China to the U.S. is the exception here, as it saw a 75% increase compared to 2024. The tariffs and the resulting resourcing do appear to still be impacting the demand on this lane, resulting in the increased blank sailings. It is likely that this will soften in the coming months as companies import inventory in preparation for Lunar New Year factory closures in February.
US trends in trade partners shift
While tariffs on major trade partner China have been reduced in recent months, their effects continue to ripple through supply chains. A closer look at US/China trade flows in 2025 reveals sharp swings tied directly to tariff actions and market anticipation.
On the import side, shipments from China to the US are trending 28% lower through November compared to 2024. After modest gains in January (+1%) and February (+4%), volumes fell steeply and have remained 42% lower in November compared to 2024 volumes. These swings illustrate how tariffs and front-loading behavior created early-year increases followed by sustained weakness through the summer and fall. Despite falling imports from China to the U.S., China’s trade surplus has hit $1 trillion for the first time, showing that China has strengthened trade relations with other countries and is not dependent on the U.S. for their exports.
In response to the US tariffs, China passed their own tariffs on US goods, impacting exports from the US to China.
On the export side, shipments from the US to China are under even greater pressure, trending 41% lower year-to-date. Monthly volumes have been consistently negative against 2024, with drops exceeding 50% in April, May, August, and October. November shows the smallest decrease compared to 2024 since January, at just 23% lower than November 2024. Trump and Xi did have a meeting at the end of October about a tentative trade deal, so if this softening continues to climb back to 2024 levels throughout the next few months, it will serve as an indicator that trade relations between the two nations are improving.
It is abundantly clear that the new tariffs passed by both countries have had major impacts on demand for goods along these lanes. With the decrease of U.S. imports from China, new sourcing strategies are beginning to emerge for U.S. imports.
With volumes out of China decreasing, Indonesia and Thailand are emerging as alternative suppliers, with imports up 33% from Thailand and 34% from Indonesia compared to 2024. Both countries still face tariffs (+19% since January, plus product-specific surcharges), but demand has nevertheless grown throughout 2025.
Despite overall growth throughout the year, April marked a decrease from both countries in light of the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, and November shows a 3% decrease on imports from Thailand compared to 2024. It is unclear at this time whether this is a trend or if this can be attributed to a lull in orders after the holiday season.
Impacts of the end of de minimis exemption remain low
The de minimis exemption allowed packages entering the United States with a value of less than $800 to be exempt from tariffs and duties. This exemption was closed as of August 29, 2025, so now all items entering the US are subject to tariffs and duties regardless of value. Shippers, like USPS, UPS, and FedEx are responsible for collecting these taxes, and charge broker fees to cover processing costs and labor needed to manage this process. This has led to an uptick in consumers in the US being surprised by a tariff bill after a package was delivered and has created a need for an average consumer to have a higher awareness for where online orders are shipping from and what tariffs and duties they might incur.
This has also led to an increase in work needed for eCommerce shippers to process shipments from overseas, with concerns that this will delay online orders in the eCommerce space.
Despite the end of de minimis, last-mile on-time performance improved by 2% between August and October. November saw a 1% decline in on-time performance, but this is a result of peak season beginning rather than de minimis.
This does not mean packages aren’t facing delays due to the extra paperwork and processing required for imports but rather reflects that many retailers fulfill eCommerce orders domestically. Major retailers often import in bulk, stock fulfillment centers, and ship domestically, so most online orders in the US are unaffected. However, consumers should be aware of a package’s origin when ordering online, as items shipped directly from overseas remain subject to tariffs, duties, and potential delays.
Appendix
These charts are made to serve as a baseline to fully understand the scope of tariffs and shifting trade dynamics. According to data from the millions of shipments managed annually by project44, the United States primarily imports goods from the following top countries by volume:
China, which is included in the BRICS category, is our largest provider of imports, followed by the EU and Vietnam. These three regions make up more than 50% of the imports tracked by project44 in 2024.
Below are the countries that see the most American exports based off project44 data.
With China separated from the BRICS nations, they receive 8.5% of exports, meaning Canada, China, and the EU make up more than half of the shipments exported from the United States in 2024.
Summary
Trade conditions across U.S. lanes have mostly steadied as the sharp disruptions triggered by the 2025 tariffs continue to fade. Blank sailings have declined from their spring peak, tariff related swings in carrier behavior have moderated, and several trade corridors are returning toward more typical patterns. Yet this stability is not assured. The ongoing legal disputes and an upcoming Supreme Court decision on presidential authority surrounding the Liberation Day tariffs could reshape the policy outlook. As a result, even as trade normalizes, the possibility of renewed volatility remains.
