Florida prepares for hurricane milton

Summary:

  • Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane near Tampa, FL on October 9, 2024 less than 2 weeks after Helene and just 5 days after the end of the ILA Port Strike. Milton will continue to exacerbate recovery efforts for these other major disruptions.  
  • Currently, there are around 74 container vessels near the path of the Hurricane Milton.
  • Ports in Florida are limiting operations due to storm advisories while Georgia is operating as normal while they continue to monitor.
  • Last mile delivery in particular, is susceptible to delays and disruptions. During Helene, there was an 11% decrease in on-time performance for shipments leaving Florida and a 7% decrease for shipments inbound.  Impact is likely to be higher for Milton due to the evacuations.

Overview

On October 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall in the Tampa, FL area as a Category 4 hurricane, having recently been downgraded from a Category 5. Mandatory evacuations have been implemented in various parts of Florida, and significant damage from wind, storms, and flooding is anticipated.

Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated the Southeast and the ILA port strike crippled ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, ending just 4 days ago. In an already fragile supply chain environment, Milton is anticipated to have major disruptions for transportation.  For more information on how these types of catastrophes impact supply chains, tune into From Hurricanes to Port Strikes: Supply Chain Resilience in the New Never Normal.

Vessels in Vicinity

The map below shows vessels near the path of Hurricane Milton.

Approximately 74 container vessels are located near the storm and may experience delays as they await safe entry into major ports. Vessels already at the ports may face delays departing as they wait for storm conditions to clear.

Similar to the impacts of Hurricanes Beryl and Francine, delays are expected for the U.S. oil and gas industry, as Gulf Coast refineries may need to shut down or postpone operations. This disruption comes at a critical time for imports of goods as peak season continues for U.S. retailers through October.

Ports Impacted

The west coast of Florida is anticipated to sustain most of the significant damage from the hurricane. The Port of Tampa is directly in the path of the storm, but other ports are also expected to feel the effects. As of now, Georgia does not expect major impacts from Hurricane Milton and is not planning any port closures.

There have not been any notable impacts on inbound vessel counts at this time, but Tampa will not see any incoming vessels while the port remains closed. Both Jacksonville and Miami remain open for the time being.

Truckload Impacts

Truckload shipments are vulnerable to delays from hurricane-related roadblocks and flooding, especially as some areas are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which made landfall less than two weeks ago on September 27.

The Southeast’s on-time performance rate is beginning to recover from the damage caused by Helene, but it is likely to dip again as Milton approaches landfall.

Florida, in particular, will see a decline in truckload performance as it is expected to bear the brunt of Hurricane Milton. Operating at a lower-than-normal level of 72% yesterday, project44 expects to see a decrease similar to or greater than the 7% drop experienced in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.

Last Mile

Florida will likely also face impacts in the Last Mile delivery industry as roads become difficult to navigate and workers evacuate for safety. The chart below shows the daily on-time performance for shipments inbound to and outbound from the state of Florida.

Inbound shipments are most susceptible to service disruptions, evidenced by the 11% drop in performance level due to Helene. Outbound shipments also saw a 7% decrease. This decline is expected to be even greater for both inbound and outbound shipments as a result of Milton due to evacuations, which contribute to traffic congestion and reduce the available labor force in impacted areas.

Hurricanes can also impact the overall delivery time for Last Mile packages, as the chart below illustrates.

While the impact on delivery times is less significant than on-time performance, there was still an uptick following Hurricane Helene, particularly for outbound shipments. Outbound shipments are more affected because this metric includes both order fulfillment and transit times. Disruptions in power and workforce availability complicate fulfilling orders, leading to increased transit times due to infrastructure damage. It is likely that Hurricane Milton will result in even more severe impacts due to the evacuations.

Summary

As Hurricane Milton approaches the Florida coastline, the state is bracing for significant challenges across multiple sectors, particularly in shipping and logistics. With mandatory evacuations already in place, major ports, especially Tampa, are directly in the storm’s path, which is likely to result in disruptions to vessel operations and delays in the delivery of goods. The impact on truckload shipments and Last Mile services is expected to worsen, particularly as recovery efforts from Hurricane Helene are still underway. Industry stakeholders must remain vigilant as conditions evolve, preparing for potential fallout that could disrupt both local and national supply chains during this critical peak season. Ultimately, Hurricane Milton underscores the ongoing necessity for preparedness and resilience in the face of severe weather events.

Concern for Safety

While project44 has made it a priority to provide frequent updates on Hurricane Milton and its impact to the supply chain, the safety of all people impacted by the storm remains top of mind. They and their families are in our thoughts, and we urge people to follow local guidelines for safety in these times.

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