Three months into Hormuz disruption, congestion deepens across Asian networks 

Summary 

1. Since the closure of the Strait, more than 81,500 shipments have been rerouted away from Strait-dependent ports, with the 13^th week of closure seeing a total of 3,950 diversions. This is 52% lower than the active-conflict average of 8,202 per week, but does still remain over 250% above the pre-conflict baseline of 1,118 per week. While diversions are slowing, they are still prominent. 

2. UAE remains the largest rerouting destination at 46% of diverted cargo in Week 13, broadly stable vs 43% in Week 1. Saudi Arabia has grown to become the second-largest destination, rising from 3% (W1) to 14% (W13). India absorbed substantial rerouted cargo early (17% in W1) but its share has declined to 8% by W13. Jeddah port arrivals are 63% above pre-conflict. Many diversions stemmed from the Port of Jebel Ali, which has seen inbound arrivals collapse by 95% since the conflict started. 

3. Navi Mumbai import dwell has risen 260% from 4.11 days pre-conflict to 14.77 days in Week 13. Singapore hit 7.59 days, a 90% increase over its pre-conflict average of 3.99 days. Downstream impacts of rerouting has resulting in congestion spreading into the broader Asian networks. 

4. Cape of Good Hope traffic continues to be elevated, with inbound vessel traffic trending 41% higher than the pre-conflict baseline. Gwadar Port in Pakistan saw significant TEU increases and warrants further monitoring  

Diversions at 3,950 in Week 13, still 253% above pre-conflict baseline 

Week 13 recorded 3,950 diverted shipments, which is a 10% week-over-week decline and 52% below the active-conflict average. The ceasefire in early April triggered an immediate collapse in Week 6 (−40% WoW). At 3,950 shipments, Week 13 remains 253% above the pre-conflict baseline of 1,118 per week, confirming that despite the declining rate of diversions, structural rerouting persists. 

Saudi Arabia rises to second-largest diversion destination 

UAE ports have been the dominant receiving destination throughout the disruption, taking 46% of all diversions in Week 13, broadly stable versus 43% in Week 1. UAE share actually spiked in the weeks immediately after the ceasefire, rising to 58% in W7, 61% in W8, and 58% in W9 as cargo reconsolidated onto Jebel Ali alternatives before easing back. Saudi Arabia has grown from 3% (W1) to 14% (W13) to become the clear second-largest destination, peaking at 21% in Week 5. India absorbed substantial rerouted cargo early in the disruption (17% in Week 1) but its share has declined to 8% by Week 13. Oman has fluctuated between 3% and 15% across the 13 weeks with no consistent direction, ending at 8% in Week 13. 

Gulf port TEU arrivals: Jeddah surges, Jebel Ali collapses 

Jeddah saw a total of 65 vessels call during week 13, which is a 63% increase over the pre-conflict average of 40 vessels weekly, with a potential increase of over 85,000 TEUs weekly entering the port. This is reflective of the large volume of cargo redirected from Strait-dependent ports to Saudi Red Sea gateways, such as Jebel Ali. This port serves as a major Gulf hub, but is no longer accessible due to the conflict, resulting in weekly inbound vessel volume collapsing by 95% from an average of 88 per week down to a mere 4 in Week 13. Other ports seeing some of this volume include Sohar, which saw a 78% increase from 9 vessels per week pre-conflict to 16 in Week 13. 

Significant port congestion persists across Asian networks 

Import dwell continues to remain significantly elevated across all monitored ports despite falling diversion volumes. Congestion is now driven by accumulated backlog at ports receiving rerouted cargo, not by the act of rerouting itself. Navi Mumbai, which has become a key transshipment hub absorbing cargo rerouted away from Gulf ports, has seen import dwell rise from 4.11 days pre-conflict to 14.77 days in Week 13, an increase exceeding 250%. Mundra peaked at 9.56 days in Week 12 before a partial pullback to 7.69 days, still 77% above the pre-conflict average of 4.34. Singapore’s 90% rise to 7.59 days confirms that congestion at hubs handling rerouted Gulf cargo is now propagating into broader Asian port networks across the board. 

Cape of Good Hope vessel traffic is 41% above pre-conflict baseline 

Cape of Good Hope traffic surged during active conflict, with combined vessel arrivals across Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth, Walvis Bay, and Maputo averaging 8 vessels per week during Weeks 1–6, a 17% increase above pre-conflict. Since the ceasefire, the weekly average has continued to remain elevated at an average of 10 vessels per week compared to an average of 7 per week pre-conflict. While this does not sound like a huge difference, it is a 35% increase in incoming TEU capacity or the equivalent of nearly 10,000 TEUs that could possibly arrive at one of these ports.  

Gwadar warrants monitoring  

Due to its advantageous location just before the Strait of Hormuz, Gwadar port in Pakistan has recently made headlines as a viable alternative. Gwadar is emerging as a crucial gateway of Persian Gulf due to its ability to serve as a transshipment node during regional shipment disruptions. Acting as the southern terminal of the multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), cargo arriving at Gwadar can be transported overland directly into western China while avoiding regional conflicts and blockages in the Persian Gulf. TEU volume has increased significantly with 11,00 TEU transiting Gwadar in April 2026, compared to just 8,300 TEU for all of 2025. While a compelling signal, this data may indicate larger vessels calling Gwadar rather than significant operational increase. However, with critical CPEC rail connectivity and planned expansion, Gwadar warrants further monitoring. project44 will continue analyzing Gwadar port data in subsequent reports.