Summary:
- The average delivery time for November 2024 is 3.7 days, which is a 27% improvement compared to November of 2023. Overall, delivery times are expected to be lower for peak season 2024 compared to previous years.
- On-time performance decreased 1% between October and November, but remains on par with peak season 2023, with November on-time performance at 84%.
- Shippers continue to diversify their networks, as they did in 2023, increasing the number of carriers used by 5% between October and November.
- Consumer complaints about delays have decreased 8% in the past two years; however, delays remain a top issue, alongside delivered packages reported missing.
Last mile peak season
The last mile peak season, spanning November to January, marks the highest annual volumes driven by holiday shopping, returns, and events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. This surge in demand for gifts and decor can lead to bottlenecks, making it essential to monitor and prepare for shipment delays to ensure timely deliveries during this critical period.
Delivery times and on-time performance
Delivery times represent the average duration from order placement to delivery at the customer’s doorstep. The chart below highlights monthly average delivery times for parcel shipments.
Over time, delivery times have decreased as online shopping grows and customer expectations rise. Amazon’s standardization of 2-day shipping reshaped the market, pushing companies to optimize processes and enhance satisfaction. In November 2024, the average delivery time was 3.7 days—a 27% improvement from November 2023 and a 33% improvement from November 2022. In delivery times, peak season 2024 is off to the strongest start since Covid-19.
Delivery time comprises fulfillment time—from order placement to shipment readiness, including picking, packing, and upstream transit—and transit time, which is the journey from the warehouse to the customer.
While fulfillment and transit times remained stable throughout 2024, both are expected to rise in December and January due to increased order volumes and constrained market capacity.
Customer acquisition is closely tied to fast delivery times, as long estimates may drive consumers to shop either -person or with another ecommerce retailer. However, customer satisfaction and retention hinges on on-time performance—the accuracy of the initial ETA provided at order placement. Therefore, building and maintaining a healthy e-commerce customer base requires both delivery speed and delivery predictability.
The chart below shows on-time performance trends in recent years.
As of November 2024, on-time performance remains in the mid-80% range, despite a 1% drop in performance from October to November. Historically, December or January sees the sharpest declines. Early trends suggest this year’s peak season on-time performance will align with 2023 levels, maintaining the mid-80% range.
Carrier diversification
To mitigate shipping risks and increase capacity, shippers increasingly use multiple carriers. The chart below illustrates the average number of carriers used per account.
Carrier diversification has risen by two carriers per account since 2021, with a 5% increase between October and November 2024 as shippers expand their networks for peak season. This trend is fueled by the growing availability of smaller carriers like OnTrac, Deliver-it, and Veho, alongside established players such as UPS, FedEx, DHL, and USPS.
Common complaints
The most common last-mile complaints have remained consistent, with delays and “delivered but missing” packages tied as the top issues in 2024. However, complaints about delays have dropped 8% since 2022 and are 1% lower than in 2023.
During peak shipping seasons, when last-mile delivery complexity intensifies and complaints become more frequent, solutions like project44’s eCommerce Logistics can address these challenges by providing real-time visibility that helps shippers and carriers navigate high-volume periods more effectively. project44’s platform offers proactive notifications and flexible delivery options—including scheduling and white-glove coordination—that give retailers and consumers greater control, while visibility into returns helps minimize package theft risks and delivery-related frustrations. Since missing packages are often due to theft rather than carrier error, project44 enhances security by offering delivery visibility and customer notifications to reduce unattended time. Carriers can further mitigate theft risks by placing packages in less visible areas or near cameras, while shippers can encourage customers to provide delivery notes—such as gate/door codes or requiring a signature—for more secure deliveries.
Summary
The last mile peak season, from November to January, sees the highest shipment volumes of the year, driven by holiday shopping, returns, and events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Average delivery times have improved significantly, reaching 3.7 days in November 2024, a 27% decrease from the previous year, reflecting ongoing optimization in fulfillment and transit times. While on-time performance remains strong in the mid-80% range, seasonal fluctuations are expected, with December or January typically experiencing declines. Shippers are increasingly diversifying carrier networks, adding smaller players alongside traditional ones to mitigate risks and meet rising demand. Common last-mile complaints, such as delays and missing packages, are declining, aided by better delivery visibility and customer communication, ensuring a smoother peak season experience.
