Summary:
- A trade agreement was reached between the United States and China. The tariff on U.S. imports to China remains at 10% and the restrictions around rare-earth materials are being loosened. Tariffs on Chinese imports are reported as 55%, but this includes 2018 tariffs. The net new tariffs on Chinese imports for 2025 is 30%, a 110% reduction from the peak of 145%.
- Blank sailings have continued to decrease, but there are some blank sailings still scheduled for upcoming weeks signaling either lower volumes out of China than expected or port dwell and congestion anticipated.
- Volumes from China to the U.S. continue to increase but have not yet returned to 2024 levels. So far, the increase has not impacted key port congestion metrics.
Current state of tariffs
On June 11th, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that a trade deal has been reached with China. For the time being, the U.S. is charging a total of up to 55% on Chinese imports. This includes tariffs passed in 2018 during Trump’s first administration. In terms of net new tariffs for 2025, there is a total increase of 30%, 20% from the two fentanyl related increases and 10% as a reciprocal tariff. China is keeping the 10% tariff on U.S. imports and has loosened the restrictions on rare-earth exports to the U.S. in exchange. While the White House claims these duties will not change, the rare-earth time limit is 6 months, so there still is the possibility for future trade tensions between the two nations.
On May 28th, 2025, a court ruled that all tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are not legal and have been struck down. This applies to the “Liberation Day” tariffs and those on China, Canada, and Mexico before Liberation Day. However, this decision was swiftly appealed and tariffs were reinstated on May 29th despite ongoing legal battles.
Tariffs unaffected by court proceedings include a 25% tariff on automobile imports (10% on imports from the UK) and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, with no additional tariffs from the UK.
Despite the legal challenges, the Trump Administration remains committed to enforcing the Liberation Day tariffs through alternative means.
Main U.S. trade partners
According to data from the millions of shipments managed annually by project44, the United States primarily imports goods from the following top countries by volume:
China, which is included in the BRICS category, is our largest provider of imports, followed by the EU and Vietnam. These three regions make up more than 50% of the imports tracked by project44 in 2024.
Below are the countries that see the most American exports by volume based off project44 data.
With China separated from the BRICS nations, they receive 8.5% of exports, meaning Canada, China, and the EU make up more than half of the shipments exported from the United States in 2024.
2025 has been a year of unprecedented tariffs on imports to the United States, which resulted in tariffs on goods from the United States as well. While the tariffs levied under the IEEPA may be reversed, the tariffs imposed by other nations remain and their future is uncertain at this time. Global trade tensions continue to rise as the Trump Administration strives to make new trade deals more favorable for the United States.
Impacts from recent tariffs
Despite temporary halts, recent tariffs have had significant impacts. For instance, during periods of high tariffs on Chinese imports (>145%), there was a dramatic increase in blank sailings (up 1000%) on routes from China to the United States, affecting major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach.
The Trump Administration reduced the tariff to 30% the week of May 12th, which has resulted in an increase in orders from China into the United States. To handle the increase in volumes, blank sailings have dropped from China to the U.S. However, there are some blank sailings still scheduled for upcoming weeks, signaling either lower volumes out of China than expected or port dwell and congestion anticipated.
There has been a definitive uptick in orders from China since the tariff rate was lowered, but it does not appear that the surge is as dramatic as initially reported. Recent weeks show that the deficit between 2024 and now has weakened, but overall order volumes are still lower than this time last year. If this continues, ports should be able to handle volumes without major interruptions. project44 is continuously monitoring container dwell, vessel approach time, berthing time, and excess transit time for both major Chinese and U.S. ports as volumes do work their way from China to the United States. Currently there are no major disruptions observed.
China’s demand for U.S. imports remains low, despite the tariffs being at 10% for a month.
Strategy shifts in the wake of uncertainty
Short-term, there was a push to pull forward inventory earlier this year to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, which were a key element of Trump’s campaign. This is apparent in the imports seen from China, where volumes were up significantly compared to 2024.
Amidst fluctuating trade policies, many companies have adopted a cautious “wait and see” approach. Short-term strategies included pulling forward inventory to mitigate potential tariff impacts, a cornerstone of former President Trump’s campaign promises.
Given the unpredictability of trade policies, companies are hesitant to make substantial investments in new manufacturing facilities or overhaul complex supply chains. The shifting landscape underscores the uncertainty facing businesses, particularly with upcoming presidential transitions and ongoing legal challenges.
Summary
The current tariff landscape remains highly volatile, with recent legal rulings impacting the “Liberation Day” tariffs and ongoing trade tensions. While the tariffs remain in effect for now, the overall uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies—exacerbated by legal battles and shifting political priorities—has led many businesses to adopt a cautious stance. With significant disruptions in trade routes, especially from China, and the possibility of fluctuating tariff rates, companies are refraining from major investments or strategic overhauls until the future of these policies becomes clearer.
