Strait of Hormuz: Diversions remain high as congestion builds at downstream ports

Summary:

• Navi Mumbai is the network’s biggest pressure point. Transshipment volumes are up over 1,300% vs. pre-conflict while import dwell has nearly doubled. 
• Diversions have not normalized, with last week (9,317 diversions) and the prior week (9,655 diversions) seeing the highest levels of diversions observed thus far.
• The UAE continues to be the largest recipient of diversions, seeing 42% of diverted freight this past week. However, with the recent attack in Khawr Fakkan, this will likely change. Saudi Arabia jumped from 4% to 24% of all diversions in five weeks, now the second-largest destination for diverted freight.

Overview 

Diversions have not normalized, with last week (9,317 diversions) and the prior week (9,655 diversions) seeing the highest levels of diversions observed thus far.

The UAE continues to be the largest recipient of diversions, seeing 42% of diverted freight this past week. However, with the recent attack in Khawr Fakkan, this will likely change. Saudi Arabia jumped from 4% to 24% of all diversions in five weeks, now the second-largest destination for diverted freight.

Five weeks into the Strait of Hormuz disruption, what began as emergency rerouting has become the new normal. The data shows no signs of stabilization in the near future. The Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill with carriers hesitant to return to business as usual, while diversions, and their downstream impacts, continue to surge. 

Diversions continue to surge  

As conflict in the area continues, diversions away from Gulf ports remain at sustained levels, even 5 weeks into the conflict, with no signs of slowing down. The chart below outlines the number of diversions project44 has observed weekly in its platform. 

Before the Strait closed, weekly diversions were below the 2,000 threshold, which is considered normal operational noise. The week of March 2, that figure jumped to 9,146 and has not come back down. In fact, the number of diversions are continuing to increase, with the week of March 23^rd a peak of 9,655 diverted containers, and the week of March 30^th following close behind with 9,317 diversions observed.  

While it is clear that diverted containers are the new norm for the time being, the geographic distribution of where they are being diverted to has continued to evolve.  

The UAE has been the strong frontrunner for diverted cargo since the beginning of the conflict, receiving 42% of all diversions last week. These diversions are going to ports in Persian Gulf just before the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from vessels with Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi as their planned port of discharge. Khawr Fakkan has absorbed a consistent 10–11% of all diversions from Jebel Ali, the single largest pairing in the network every week. Fujairah barely registered in Weeks 1 and 2 (0%) but climbed to 6% in Week 4 and holds at 5% in Week 5. Salalah takes a steady 2–3%. Abu Dhabi to Khawr Fakkan was briefly the largest single pairing at 13% in Week 1, then collapsed to 2%, suggesting Abu Dhabi’s overflow was absorbed quickly while Jebel Ali’s has proven persistent.  

However, Khawr Fakkan (UAE) was attacked on April 6^th, meaning the network has lost one of its primary alternative pressure valves. This volume will either redistribute to other ports in the area, or it is possible carriers will shift containers away from the UAE entirely, meaning lower volumes of diversions among all ports above. 

Salalah (Oman), is becoming congested and pushing cargo into India. What began as a receiving port for Jebel Ali overflow is now itself a source of diversions. Cargo originally bound for Salalah is being redirected to Navi Mumbai (2%), Pipavav Bandar (2%), and Colombo (6%, a pairing that was 0% for the first four weeks). That 6% for Salalah–Colombo is the sharpest single-week emergence in the dataset: from nothing to the third-largest diversion pairing in one week.  

Navi Mumbai: the network’s most stressed node  

Navi Mumbai, India’s largest container port and a primary gateway for trade with Europe, the Middle East, and the United States, has undergone a rapid transformation over the past five weeks that illustrates the broader pressure bearing down on the network.  

Transshipment volumes at Navi Mumbai tell the story in stark terms. In Week 1, as the initial shock of the Strait closure disrupted normal flows, transshipment volumes were down 42% relative to February baselines. By Week 2, volumes had recovered and begun climbing. By Week 4, transshipment volumes were 776% above February baselines. In Week 5, that figure continued climbing to over 1,300% above pre-conflict levels.

 

Navi Mumbai was not a significant transshipment node before the conflict. It has become one rapidly, and the operational strain is visible in the dwell data. Import dwell has risen over 200% since disruptions began, peaking at 23 days before easing slightly to a current rolling 7-day average of 20 days. Transshipment dwell is now at 11 days, up from 8.7 days last week, and still climbing.  

The complexity of absorbing this volume of transshipment activity, for which Navi Mumbai was not designed, is compounding congestion beyond what raw volume numbers suggest. When transshipment dwell at Navi Mumbai peaks, it will be the first real signal that the network is beginning to stabilize. That peak has not arrived. 

Key takeaways 

Five weeks into the Strait of Hormuz disruption, global trade remains under significant stress. While a ceasefire has been declared and the Strait is technically “open,” carriers are showing no signs of returning to normal operations. Volatility remains high, the attack on Khawr Fakkan has already removed one of the primary pressure valves from the diversion network, and congestion at Navi Mumbai continues to climb. 

Week 6 data will tell the clearest story yet of whether carriers are willing to absorb the risk and cost of traversing the Strait or will continue diverting vessels away from the region entirely.