Overview
- Week 24 diversions fell to 2,721 shipments, the lowest weekly total in 14 weeks.
- The UAE remains the largest source of diverted traffic, but its share of total diversions is falling. The busiest single diversion lane in week 24 is Salalah, Oman to Navi Mumbai, India.
- Navi Mumbai port is seeing 6x import dwell times compared to pre-conflict
- Mersin, Turkey’s leader Mediterranean gateway for Middle East bound trade is seeing import and transshipment dwell above 30 days
- Singapore import dwell hits new high for crisis at nearly 11 days.
- New air cargo data shows Dubai transit volume dropping as Istanbul and Frankfurt absorb cargo originally bound for the Middle East
Diversion volume falls to a 14-week low
Week 24 showed positive signs on diversion count. Total weekly diversions through the Strait of Hormuz corridor dropped to 2,721 shipments in week 24, the lowest level in fourteen weeks. The decline isn’t a one-week blip: volume has been sliding steadily since week 20, down 41% over that span.
Week 24 marks the fourth straight weekly decline and the low point of the current Active Conflict 2 phase, which began in early July.
The UAE still dominates diverted traffic, but its share is shrinking
The UAE has been the largest single origin country for diverted shipments every week since the crisis began, though its week 24 volume is roughly a fifth of what it was in week 1. Its share of total weekly diversions has fallen from about 75% in week 1 to just over 50% in week 24. Saudi Arabia and Oman have each held a fairly steady second and third position across the last eight weeks, while Qatar’s volumes remain a small fraction of the other three by comparison.
Across weeks 17–24, the UAE accounted for about 49% of diverted volume among the top four countries, followed by Saudi Arabia at 34%, Oman at 16%, and Qatar just over 1%.
Short-haul Gulf shuffles dominate this week’s diversion lanes
Rather than long-haul re-routing, most of week 24’s heaviest diversion activity is short-haul repositioning within and around the Gulf. The single busiest lane, Salalah (Oman) to Navi Mumbai (India), accounts for roughly 9% of the week’s diverted volume. Three of the next four busiest lanes are UAE-internal shuffles between Fujairah, Khawr Fakkan, and Khalifa, and a fourth links Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah Port to Khawr Fakkan.
The Fujairah–Khawr Fakkan pairing appears in both directions among the top three lanes, together accounting for roughly 16% of week 24’s diverted volume, a sign that much of this week’s activity is intra-UAE repositioning rather than new international routing.
Port congestion hits new highs in Singapore, Turkey and Mumbai as Gulf avoidance pressures key ports
Five ports are driving this week’s dwell story, each seeing new highs in our dataset.
Navi Mumbai’s import dwell climbed to 25.4 days, 6x the pre conflict baseline. Navi Mumbai, one of India’s largest ports and strategic alternative to Gulf shipping, has seen consistent import dwell increases through the crisis.
Two notable Turkish ports that act as Mediterranean gateways of Middle-East bound trade, are experiencing significant port congestion. Mersin, Turkey’s leading gateway to the Middle East, hit records on two fronts at once: import dwell climbed to 32.2 days and transshipment dwell reached 30.8 days, both the highest points since the crisis began. Iskenderun, one of the top 10 ports in Turkey by TEU volume seen as a potential alternative to Mersin, is now seeing 22.2 days of import dwell, an increase of 10 days in the last month.
Singapore, the world’s second largest port by TEU volume, has seeing import dwell spike by 4 days in the last month and is now experiencing nearly 11 days of import dwell.
On export dwell, Abu Dhabi has experienced elevated export dwell since the crisis began, but week 24 saw a new high for the crisis at over 53 days.
Air cargo shows Dubai losing share to Istanbul and Frankfurt
From January through mid-August, the share of air shipments routed through a Middle East airport as their first stop fell sharply once the conflict began, and it has never recovered to where it started. The pattern holds in every phase measured since: potentially representing like a structural change in Gulf air routing, not a temporary dip.
Dubai’s volume has actually grown since the ceasefire, up roughly 11% versus its pre-conflict baseline, but that increase lags well behind Istanbul and Frankfurt, both of which have grown faster and now handle more daily traffic than Dubai. Istanbul has gained in every single phase without interruption, while Frankfurt’s growth has come with rising dwell times, a sign of congestion rather than a clean absorption of displaced cargo.
Transit times tell a similar story: they’ve climbed well above the pre-conflict baseline in the current phase and haven’t returned to normal in any phase, including the ceasefire.
The impact
Taken together, week 24’s sea and air data point to the same underlying story from two different angles: less traffic is routing through Gulf infrastructure overall, and lower diversions is a positive signal for vessels moving thought the strait. But the pressure has to show up somewhere. Congestion is continuing to build at record levels for our dataset strategic ports, with Navi Mumbai, Mersin, Iskenderun, and Singapore for import dwell and Abu Dhabi for export dwell. Air cargo data shows Dubai has ceded share to Istanbul and Frankfurt, perhaps permanently.
For shippers and carriers, that combination argues for planning around specific hubs and lanes, bracing for extreme delays and potential fees at major ports absorbing the regions traffic. Lower diversions does not mean risk is reduced as a result of Hormuz, only that the pressure from this crisis is showing up elsewhere across the global supply chain.
