Summary
- A 400% increase to blank sailings from China to the United States has occurred since liberation day tariffs were passed, but schedules show this levelling out in June. The surge in demand with the lower tariffs support this.
- Blank sailings from China to the U.S. in April increased by 47% compared to March and are up nearly 40% compared to April 2024. Based on the downscale in tariffs, this is not expected to continue through May.
- Imports from China to the U.S. have been higher compared to last year, possibly illustrating pull forward inventory, but have fallen for four consecutive weeks by over 30% compared to 2024. Levels are expected to increase and potentially exceed 2024 levels with the tariff adjustments.
- Like imports, exports are also anticipated to increase based on the new tariff rates.
Overview
On April 9th, former President Donald Trump postponed nearly all the “Liberation Day” tariffs, leaving in place only the 10% baseline tariff and a 125% surcharge specifically on Chinese imports. This raised the total tariff burden on most Chinese goods to 145%, meaning a product that once cost a U.S. company $100 to import would now cost $245.
However, over the weekend, the U.S. and China reached a temporary agreement to de-escalate trade tensions. As of May 14th, the U.S. has reduced its tariff on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China has lowered its retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This 90-day pause in tariff escalation is intended to provide space for further negotiations.
Notably, electronics—representing roughly 25% of all Chinese imports—had already been exempted from the 125% surcharge and remain excluded for now. The Trump administration has indicated, however, that additional tariffs on this category may still be introduced in the future.
Despite the temporary reduction, many of the earlier tariffs remain in place, and the long-term outlook for U.S.–China trade remains uncertain.
U.S. imports and exports from China
Imports
When the tariffs increased, U.S. companies look opted to pause ordering or source from other countries. The chart below compares recent weeks of imports from China to the U.S. with the same period last year.
As the chart shows, imports from China have remained stable up until the 125% tariff was passed, indicating that U.S. companies began altering their ordering strategies. Companies have been quick to pivot their sourcing strategies as imports from China slow. The week of 5/5 marks the fifth consecutive week in a decline of imports from China, with more than a 30% decline compared to May 2024.
As shown in the chart, imports from China remained relatively stable until the 125% tariff was implemented. Since then, a noticeable shift in ordering patterns has emerged. The week of May 5th marked the fifth consecutive week of declining imports from China, with volume dropping more than 30% compared to May 2024.
This trend is expected to reverse starting this week, driven by the temporary reduction in tariffs. A surge in Chinese imports is likely as companies rush to bring in goods before the 90-day window closes. In addition to clearing inventory held back by the previous 145% tariff, many importers may choose to front-load shipments to avoid future uncertainty—particularly in preparation for key retail seasons like back-to-school.
Exports
In response to the U.S. tariffs, China has imposed its own tariffs on U.S. imports. The chart below shows changes in U.S. exports to China so far this year compared to the same time last year.
U.S. exports to China have declined sharply, suggesting China has been quick to shift its sourcing strategies away from the U.S. However, with the recent tariff reduction from 125% to 10%, and the pause on additional measures, export volumes are expected to begin rebounding in the coming weeks.
Blank Sailings
As the tariffs increase and exports decrease out of China, vessels that travel from China to the United States are starting to see an increase of blank sailings, which is when a carrier chooses to skip port calls along a trade route. The chart below shows how many blank sailings are scheduled to occur through May 2025 on vessels originating from China to the United States.
Following the steep tariffs introduced the week of April 7th, blank sailings spiked by 400% for the week of April 28th. However, blank sailings have steadily declined since that peak and are expected to remain low as export volumes rise in response to the tariff rollback.
Summary
The temporary easing of tariffs between the U.S. and China marks a critical turning point in recent trade tensions. Both countries have significantly reduced their tariffs—down from 145% to 30% on Chinese imports and from 125% to 10% on U.S. exports—triggering a 90-day pause in escalation and creating a short-term window of opportunity for global shippers.
Key trends to monitor include:
Import Recovery: After weeks of steep declines, U.S. imports from China are expected to rebound as companies move quickly to bring in goods before the tariff pause ends.
Export Stabilization: U.S. exports to China, previously suppressed by retaliatory tariffs, may begin to recover as trade costs decrease.
Blank Sailings Decline: With increased demand, blank sailings are tapering off, signaling improved vessel utilization and port scheduling.
Ongoing Uncertainty: While the pause provides short-term relief, many tariffs remain in place, and the future of U.S.–China trade policy remains uncertain pending further negotiations.
Shippers and supply chain stakeholders should use this 90-day window to reassess inventory strategies, secure capacity, and prepare for potential volatility once the pause expires.
