The Red Sea crisis: Renewed attacks keep shipping at risk

Summary:

• Vessel disruptions continue: Container vessels remain the most affected by Red Sea attacks, followed by tankers and bulk carriers, with many still rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk
• Suez Canal traffic remains historically low: Ongoing attacks and regional instability have kept canal volumes suppressed, continuing the 75% decline observed in 2024 compared to 2023.
• Transit times significantly increased: Diversions have extended transit from Southeast Asia to the U.S. East Coast by 47%, to Europe by 33%, and from China to Europe by 25%, with median shipping times on key lanes approaching two months.

Overview

Although a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was established on January 15, 2025, it has quickly deteriorated. Similarly, after a temporary pause, attacks in the Red Sea have resumed, indicating that maritime transit in the region remains high-risk.

Due to ongoing attacks and geopolitical tension, ocean carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, rerouting vessels via the Panama Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. Canal traffic remains historically low and is expected to remain suppressed for the foreseeable future.

Volume through the Suez Canal

Since the onset of attacks in late 2023, major carriers have rerouted hundreds of vessels to avoid the Red Sea, resulting in historically low Suez Canal volumes. In 2024, container vessel traffic dropped by approximately 75% compared to 2023, and these reduced levels have persisted into 2025. Data from July 2025 show there has not been any recovery in container vessel transit through the canal (shown in the chart below), and Houthi attacks as recent as August 2025 make it unlikely to recover soon.

The chart below expands on the impact across various vessel types and their frequency through the canal.

Container vessels are the most affected, but bulk carriers and tankers are also rerouting. Tankers transporting crude oil and other hazardous materials face heightened risk due to potential environmental impacts in case of attacks. General cargo and Ro-Ro vessels are less affected, partly because they constitute a smaller share of Suez Canal traffic.

Impacts to transit times

As vessels divert to avoid the Red Sea, transit times have increased by an average of 7-14 days for lanes that traditionally pass through the canal. The charts below show the median transit times on major routes, as recorded monthly through July 2025.

Median transit times have surged to approximately two months. Southeast Asia, a key exporter of electronics, clothing, accessories, and footwear, is particularly affected. Shipments to the U.S. East Coast now take 47% longer, while shipments to Europe take 33% more time to arrive. Transit times from China to Europe, another major source of consumer goods, have risen by 25%. Please note that shipments from China to the U.S. East Coast have not been affected, as they typically transit through the Panama Canal rather than the Red Sea.

Shippers have adjusted to the increase in transit times and adjusted ordering practices to make up for the additional time on the water and major stock-outs have not been observed.

Historical trade through the Suez Canal:

The Suez Canal, opened in 1869 to connect the North Atlantic to the Indian Ocean via the Mediterranean and Red Seas, saves vessels 7–20 days of travel compared to circumnavigating Africa. Interruptions can have major trade impacts, as demonstrated in 2021 when a vessel blockage halted operations for six days. With safe passage currently hindered, delays continue, particularly affecting Europe, while the U.S. has some relief from reduced Panama Canal drought impacts.

Concern for safety of front-line seafarers

While project44 has made it a priority to provide frequent updates on the Red Sea crisis, the safety of the crew members on these ships remains top priority in these challenging times. They and their families are in our thoughts.

Summary

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed attacks in the Red Sea have forced ocean carriers to avoid the Suez Canal, rerouting vessels via the Panama Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. This has led to historically low canal traffic, extended transit times of up to two months on key trade lanes, and increased shipping costs and operational risks—particularly for container vessels, bulk carriers, and tankers. While shippers have adjusted their ordering practices to mitigate stock-out risks, Europe continues to bear the brunt of delays, and the situation remains highly volatile. Continuous monitoring is essential for anticipating further disruptions and planning supply chain responses.